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市場氣氛緊張, 避險情緒高漲。 Source: 宋慶勤 SBS Cantonese
要點:
- 西方國家將俄羅斯逐出國際銀行結算系統,盧布貶值大跌30%;
- 俄羅斯總統普京下令戰略部隊進入戒備狀態;
- 期油、現貨黃金價格、美元匯價及大商品價格高企;
- 市場避險情緒高漲,美國2年及10年期國債盈利收益率分別下滑9.33%及 7.40%
周一,市場在一遍看淡的情況下,出人意表的表現不如想象中那麽波動,原因是俄羅斯被逐出國際銀行結算系統後,儘管市場對俄國經濟前景普遍看淡,盧布週一也暴跌接近 30% 至歷史低點, 但同時間,期油及鐵礦砂價格大幅飃升,提振了市場的投資氣氛,但歸根究底,市場不明朗因素未除,美股開市後,依然跌跌撞撞,走勢難以掌握。
盧布週一暴跌後,股市停開兩日,俄羅斯中央銀行隨即將官方利率從本來的9.5厘,調升至20厘、推出資產管制、禁售外幣、暫停支付手持當地債券的外國公司以及下令國有企業出售產業套換外幣等,連串消息顯示俄國金融體系正面臨重大衝擊。
期油升原因是市場擔心俄羅斯貴爲全球第二大石油生產國的供應可能被買家離棄, 因爲交收手續會變得繁複,成本會被推高,貨運將會出現困難等因素,爲此推高布倫特期油及紐約期油,今晨澳洲東部時間8:30分,紐約及布蘭特期油分別升4.55%及3.05%, 報95.76及00.92美元一桶; 美匯指數升0.12%,報96.73;現貨黃金價格更加大幅飃升了1.32%,報1,912.60美元一安士,為近兩個星期的新高。債市方面,美國2年及10年期國債盈利收益率分別下滑9.33%及 7.40%,分別報1.438厘及1.839厘,這情況說明了兩個情況; 一,市場避險情緒高漲; 二,市場對聯儲局是否會如期推出加息安排已經並不那麽確定了。
至於大商品價格飃升與俄羅斯及烏克蘭互戰爭出現膠著狀態所致。
個別市場表現
美國三大股指今晨表現分化,道指跌0.49%, 收33,892.60點,標普500跌0.24%, 收4,373.94點,但納指卻出現支持 ,高收0.41%,收13,751.40 點。烏克蘭的局勢發展, 導致聯儲局正處於兩難之間。 一方面是烏克蘭局勢相當嚴峻導致物流、資源價格及油價高企, 金融業面對成本高漲的情況難以避免,但通脹猛於虎,一時令到加息難以落實,聯儲局長鮑威爾周三及周四將會出席公開聽證會,市場將會全程關注。
澳洲200隻成份股(ASX200)週一收高,正正受到資源礦務股及能源股的帶動所致,ASX 200全日升51.3點,升幅 0.73%,收 7,049.1點。鐵礦砂的價格則上升了 3.2%,升幅强勁,原因是市場擔心俄羅斯與烏克蘭之間的武裝衝突會變得曠日持久,抑制全球關鍵煉鋼原料的供應。消息面方面,澳洲 1 月份零售銷售數字出人意料的強勁,升幅報1.8% ,為歷史第二高水平,遠超預期的 0.4% 增長; 房屋信貸貸則以每年 7.7% 的速度增長 ,市場接受,形勢一片光明,市場目前等待周二儲備銀行開會對澳洲經濟的把脈以及看看息口的動向如何;周三澳洲統計局將會公佈去年第四季的國民生產總值,現時預計可以取得3%的升幅。
上證週一收高0.32%,收3,462.31點,原因與大宗商品價格飃升,資源礦務股級能源股領漲有關,期間軍工股表現突出,升1.38%,當然同日,滬港通北向資金流入總額報 74 億元人民幣折合11.7 億美元, 對市場做好起著舉足輕重的作用。
港股方面,恆生指數全日下滑 0.24% ,收 22,713.02 點。市場分析有兩大原因。 一是疫情嚴峻導致投資氣氛相當薄弱; 二是受到港交所的拖累,大跌 3.18%,原因是經紀商下調價格目標,並且擔心該市 COVID-19 病例激增導致更嚴格的封鎖所致。
日經方面周一來了一個戲劇性的發展,先跌後升,原因是週一儘管俄羅斯被逐出國際銀行結算系統,但同日又傳出烏克蘭總統澤連斯基同意與俄羅斯在白俄羅斯及烏克蘭邊境舉行會談,因而舒緩了西方嚴厲制裁莫斯科所帶來的經濟下滑憂慮。
日經指數全日取得 0.19% 升幅,收 26,526.82 點,值得留意的是日經周一曾經一度下滑了 0.8%。
後市
烏克蘭及俄羅斯舉行會談是一個好的開始,但預計會談需時,究竟有什麽結果,大家難以估計。另外,美國聯儲局加息在即,但聯儲局可謂左右爲難,市場訊息混亂,發展態勢難以掌握,市場怎樣走下去,難以估計。大家不如綁緊安全帶應對目前的情勢,避險工具正大行其道。
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