Key Points
- Amid the current pope's health concerns, an expert says cardinals are probably already discussing a successor.
- Choosing a new pope is a complicated process which has been developed over the past 1,000 years.
- Award-winning movie Conclave is based on the political and spiritual process involved with selecting a new pontiff.
The succession of a pope is not a simple business, with a procedure that has been codified over the centuries.
Pope Francis's with serious health issues — which has become the pontiff's longest hospital stay during his 12-year papacy — has raised questions about the future leadership of the Catholic Church.
Dr Miles Pattenden, program director at the European university network The Europaeum and a regular commentator on Pope Francis’ papacy, said he believed cardinals had already hatched several plans to deal with the demise of the pope.
"Probably there have been a lot of discussions going on already, maybe even since Francis first became pope, but certainly over the last 12 months or so when it's been unfortunately quite clear that his health has been failing," Pattenden, who divides his time between Melbourne and Oxford, told SBS Italian.
We know for instance that the British state rehearsed the funeral of Queen Elizabeth every year. So it would be a surprise if they weren't prepared.Dr Miles Pattenden
In a case of life imitating art, selecting a new pope is the theme of new movie Conclave which is nominated for eight Oscars including Best Picture.
The political thriller has already won four British Academy Film Awards (BAFTAs) including Best Picture.
The Academy Awards will be announced in a ceremony to be broadcast from 10am on 3 March AEST.
The Catholic Church is both a political and a spiritual enterprise, and these two elements often come into conflict.
"The difficulty we have in decoding what goes on in the Vatican is that the rhetoric of it is all spiritual, whilst we know that there is a political dimension ... but everybody tries to pretend that it's not there and so that gap leaves a lot of space for interpretation," Pattenden explained.
What happens when a pope dies?
Vatican protocol states that the Cardinal Chamberlain will approach the pope and call out his baptismal name three times.
If there is no response, he'll declare that the pope is dead.
After the pope is officially declared dead, the Cardinal Chamberlain takes the ring from the pope's finger, the symbol of his authority as pontiff, and breaks it.
Then he will seal the papal apartments so that they're completely closed and off limits to everyone during the vacancy.
The body will be prepared for display in St Peter's Basilica, in anticipation of the funeral which will take place three to four days later.
The process of selecting a new pope is shrouded in secrecy. Credit: AAP
But new legislation brought in by Benedict XVI in 2013 means that they can be very flexible about it and move it forward or back.
"It'll probably be over fairly quickly because there's a lot of pressure on cardinals now to reach a quick decision, especially in the age of the 24-hour news cycle," Pattenden said.
"So we would expect to have a new pope about three to four weeks at most after the death or the resignation of the incumbent one."
Locked in: The conclave
The form and procedures of the conclave have been developed over the course of about 1,000 years, starting back with a Papal bull (a decree) from 1059 titled In Nomino Domino, which stated that the cardinals alone were the men who had the right to elect the pope.
The word "conclave" comes from the Latin cum clave, which means locked up using a key.
The name refers to the 13th century idea that the cardinals needed to be locked up in isolation to make their choice.
Many of the current rules of the conclave also come from that time, in particular the rule that a winning candidate must win two-thirds of the votes in the final ballot in order to be declared pope.
"And that's in order to make it much more difficult for anyone to go back on their word and say 'well, actually I didn't really mean it, we should keep voting'," Pattenden said, pointing out that today the process is fairly streamlined.
The cardinals vote twice each day, and the old two-thirds majority threshold is still required to win.
One of the biggest differences with the past is that the cardinals can now spend the night at the Santa Marta guest house, while for many centuries, they had to sleep within the conclave space around the Sistine Chapel.
The longest vacancies in the Middle Ages sometimes lasted over two years.
The Church has often oscillated between periods when there didn't seem to be any urgency to make a choice and others in which it was imperative to make it very quickly.
According to Pattenden, nowadays, the latter situation applies.
"I think the Catholic Church would lack a great deal of credibility if we were all waiting for two, three weeks and the cardinals still couldn't reach a consensus," he said.
Black smoke, white smoke
The ritual of the white smoke, the billowing that announces the new pope, is not actually as old as many people think.
It dates from the 19th century, and its origin stems from the simple fact that the cardinals needed to burn their ballot papers after each vote to make it impossible for anyone to find out who they had voted for.
Black smoke if there is no decision, white smoke if there is.Dr Miles Pattenden
When the election has finally occurred, the senior cardinal present, who would normally be the Cardinal Dean, will ask the pope-elect if he accepts his position, what name he wants to choose as pontiff, and then they will go to the balcony of St Peter's.
Three papal outfits will be laid out ready for him, with different sizes, and the newly elected pope will dress himself.
A cardinal will appear on the balcony, and he'll announce: “Habemus Papam, we have a pope."
The 'papable' candidates
Pattenden said it was highly unlikely that the cardinals hadn’t already started political wrangling to install their favourite choice.
"Well, there are names circulating, but I couldn't speculate as to what level of support each of them truly has," Pattenden said.
At the moment, three names stood out, he said.
Vatican's Cardinal Secretary of State Pietro Parolin delivers his blessing during the Rosary prayer for the health of Pope Francis. Credit: Antonio Masiello/Getty Images
Pope Francis (right) and Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle (left) during a general audience in St Peter's square. Credit: Archivio Grzegorz Galazka/Mondadori Portfolio via Getty Images
Cardinal Robert Sarah at the Vatican. Source: ABACA / Vandeville Eric
