As Opposition leader Peter Dutton faces growing pressure to reveal which visa categories the Coalition will cut, one pollster is warning the party is about to discover the depth of its "electoral crisis" among a critical voter cohort.
Kos Samaras, director at the political consultancy firm Redbridge, said its focus groups suggest the Coalition's rhetoric, tying high migration to a housing and cost of living crisis, is not resonating with multicultural Australians.
"Across all our research, a consistent theme is emerging: many [diverse Australians] view the Coalition not just as indifferent, but as actively hostile to their presence, their desire to build a life here, practice their culture and reunite with their family," he told SBS News.
"As a result, Labor's primary vote has surged into the mid-40s among Australians who speak a language other than English at home.
"Critically, this will hinder the Coalition's efforts to win back key seats like Bennelong and Reid."
The latest polling by Redbridge and Accent Research indicates Labor's two-party preferred support is in the 60s among diverse voters, as well as young voters.
The warning comes just eight days before the , with little information on how the Coalition plans to deliver its promised 25 per cent cut to permanent migration and reduce net overseas migration (NOM) by 100,000.
Both Bennelong and Reid in NSW are marginal Labor seats where more than 20 per cent of residents have Chinese ancestry.
This week, the Federation of Ethnic Communities' Council of Australia (FECCA) told SBS News migrants were being used as a "political scapegoat".
FECCA chair Peter Doukas said: "This election must be about all Australians. Our cultural diversity is something to be celebrated, not weaponised."
Samaras, who formerly worked as a Labor strategist, said his data suggests "the Coalition is about to discover the depth of its electoral crisis with one of the most critical voter cohorts: diverse Australians".
Math on migration numbers doesn't seem to add up
The Coalition's pledges are simple: Cut permanent migration by 25 per cent from 185,000 to 140,000 places; and slash NOM by 100,000 places from Labor's projected 260,000 intake.
But how the cuts would be delivered and who they would impact were questions Dutton had, until Tuesday, maintained would be revealed after the election, despite repeated questioning.
After four attempts, Dutton eventually confirmed parent visas — currently capped at 8,500 per year — would not be reduced.
On Thursday, Opposition immigration spokesperson Dan Tehan further pledged partner visas — currently capped at 40,500 places per year — would not be touched either.
In the midst of an election campaign, any such cuts would surely be weaponised by Labor among migrant voters in key electorates.
But with 49,000 visas now off the table, where will the cuts to the permanent program be made?
The Coalition says they will come predominantly from skilled migration.
Abul Rizvi, a former deputy secretary of the immigration department, raised doubts about whether this figure could be achieved.
"I can't see how they would cut 45,000 visas from the skilled stream in 2025-26," he told SBS News.
"[Nationals leader David] Littleproud has said regional visas are off limits. That's 33,000 places in the skill stream. Dutton has said he will resurrect the significant investor visa.
"They have also said they will prioritise construction: tradies, nurses, aged care workers, chefs and cooks. They have not said what they will cut.
"With all these areas off limits and [further] areas for increase, I can't see how they would cut 45,000 from the skill stream in 2025-26."
But Rizvi believes Labor has also made promises that are unlikely to be delivered.
"On the permanent migration program, Labor has avoided scrutiny by not announcing its 2025-26 migration program. We don't know what they plan," he said.
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Calls for Coalition to reveal which skilled migrants would be cut
Tehan appeared to misspeak on Thursday morning when he told ABC Radio, "we're going to reduce skilled migration intake from 185,000 to 140,000" — which appears to instead be the overall reduction proposed.
The current skilled intake is set at 132,000 places.
When Dutton was asked whether his pick for immigration minister had misspoken or was unaware of the current policy settings, he simply said: "I haven't seen those comments, but what I will tell you is we will reduce migration by 25 per cent."
"The government has created a housing crisis through bringing a million people in over two years, which is unprecedented," he said.
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Tehan has not sought to clarify his statement but said the Coalition wanted more Australians to realise the dream of home ownership and rebalancing the migration intake is part of its plan to achieve this.
"The Coalition believes in a strong migration program, but it must be sensibly managed so housing and infrastructure can keep up — and that's exactly the community feedback we've been receiving all across Australia," he said in a statement.
Immigration Minister Tony Burke has called on the Coalition to reveal which skilled migrant categories it would cut, demanding it "rule out" certain categories, such as IT professionals.
According to the latest data, the top five skilled migrant professions are nurses, software and IT programmers, accountants, chefs, and civil engineers.
Record migration falling, but still high
The Coalition's claims that Labor has presided over the highest migration intake in Australia's history are technically true. In the 2022-23 financial year, there was a record high net migration of 536,000.
This was an overcorrection after borders re-opened following the pandemic, during which time net migration slid into negative numbers.
The following year, the NOM was 446,000, and 380,000 the year after. In every year, more than half of the visas issued went to international students, followed by working holiday makers.
Both major parties are proposing cuts to international students — though the Coalition's would be 30,000 deeper — in response.
Both Labor and the Coalition say they will cut the number of international students. Source: AAP / Bianca De Marchi
In the upcoming financial year, net migration is projected to fall to 260,000 — in line with the long-term trend.
A study has found for Australia's rental crisis, but opinion polling suggests many Australians do think migration is too high.
Two reports published early last year — one from the Lowy Institute and another from the Australian National University (ANU) — found around half of all Australians think immigration is too high.
Despite this, ANU study lead author Alyssa Leng said its survey also found strong support for more skilled migrants and that most respondents did not support a reduction in international student visa numbers.
How the rhetoric and reality weigh up against what has been promised by both major parties will be revealed in just over a week.
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