In Cairns, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese stands on the banks of the crocodile-infested Barron River, plotting a Labor resurgence in far north Queensland.
It's his fourth visit to the state in 12 days, in a seat that has been held by the Coalition's Warren Entsch for 15 years.
"The only time the LNP have won the seat of Leichhardt in the modern era is when Warren Entsch was the candidate," Albanese told reporters.
Labor believes Entsch's looming retirement, plus controversy surrounding the Liberal's replacement candidate Jeremy Neale — who apologised this week for social media posts critical of China's role in the COVID-19 pandemic and "feminists" kicking United States President Donald Trump out of office in 2021 — has created an opening in a state where the party holds just five of 30 seats.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has been open about his aggressive strategy to win more seats in Queensland, where Labor currently holds only five out of 30. Source: AAP / Lukas Coch
Albanese is going after the whole Dutton dynasty. Leichhardt was once held by Charles Dutton, the great-great grandfather of Peter Dutton.
Albanese believes Labor can win a second-term majority government. Behind the scenes, he expresses a confidence that borders on cocky.
But election campaigns are about psychology as much as strategy, and the clear message Albanese is sending is that he is on the attack.
Trump backlash benefits Albanese
Albanese's self-assuredness boils down to a few things: Labor's early bounce in the polls has coincided with domestic blowback against Trump, which has bled into backlash against Dutton's policies on education, work from home (WFH) bans and public service cuts.
On Monday morning, and issue an unreserved apology to Australian women, saying: "We made a mistake."
Tuesday night's leaders' debate in western Sydney delivered Albanese a second victory, as the audience of 'undecided voters' determined he had out-performed Dutton. In truth, the debate offered little beyond the well-rehearsed political lines we have come to expect from both leaders over the course of this term of parliament.
Anthony Albanese was declared the winner of the first leaders' debate, with 44 of the 100 voters in the room choosing the prime minister. Thirty-five voted for Peter Dutton and 21 were undecided. Credit: Jason Edwards/AAP
It was Dutton who was on the defensive more often than not; asked how he would conduct a debate about cutting immigration without "demonising migrants", why the Coalition did not support , and his record on Medicare.
"The fact is that there were no cuts," Dutton said. "The prime minister goes out with this Medi-scare campaign, the education scare campaign … there is just no truth to it."
Labor has consistently attacked Dutton's record as health minister a decade ago when he tried to introduce a $7 GP co-payment, which was ultimately abandoned.
There must be a special pocket sewn into Albanese's suit jacket for his Medicare card, which has been whipped out dozens of times already as he frames the election as a choice between an "Australian" or "Americanised" health system.
In 2025, the Coalition has matched Labor's health policies, from $8.5 billion for Medicare to cheaper medicines and women's health. It has its own $500 million mental health policy (while Labor has pledged $1 billion).
In 2025, the Coalition has matched Labor's health policies, from $8.5 billion for Medicare to cheaper medicines and women's health. Source: AAP / Lukas Coch
'It's a vibe'
As Albanese rounded out his fourth Queensland stop with a visit to the Great Barrier Reef, on the boat ride back to Cairns, he gave his undivided attention to a group of 20-something local women, who commented he should use more gen Z slang.
Apparently, his quip that the Coalition was "delulu with no solulu” (delusional without a solution) had more cut-through than any policy announcement. This is invaluable feedback because this is the first election in which gen Z and millennial voters will outnumber baby boomers.
Minutes later, sitting down with Sky News for an impromptu interview while being buffeted by 50km/h winds and crashing waves, Albanese told the live TV audience: "It's a vibe out here."
So far, he has spent more time in Queensland — his rival's home state — than in Victoria, where even Labor cabinet ministers concede the party could lose half a dozen seats in the outer suburbs.
"I want to be a prime minister for all Australians," he said while announcing disaster relief for flood-affected farmers in western Queensland's Maranoa — the safest Coalition electorate in the country — held by .
Looking back, the strategy was set out in Albanese's very first press conference of the campaign: "I'm out to win Dickson," he said. "I'm out to win Brisbane. Griffith and Ryan, out to win Leichhardt, out to win Bonner."
As the campaign goes on, it's inevitable Labor's focus will shift to defending seats where its vote is in trouble — in western Sydney, outer Melbourne, across the Northern Territory and in Perth.
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Minority Greens deal ruled out
Despite feeling good — or perhaps because of it — Albanese has become increasingly agitated by questions about whether he would do a deal with the Greens ("no, no, no") or whether he would rule out changes to negative gearing or capital gains tax discounts as part of negotiations with the minor party if Australia delivers a minority Labor government.
"I mean, you're a state correspondent, but let me explain," Albanese said to a non-press gallery journalist.
"There are 25 votes we have in the Senate in order to get legislation through. We're in that [minority] situation [in the Senate] and have been in that situation for this entire term. We have stuck to our position."
This includes Albanese's captain's call to veto a deal struck by Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek with the Greens to deliver Labor's promised 'nature-positive' laws to establish a new environmental protection regulator.
Asked if he believed voters would punish him for taking the same environmental policy as 2022 to the 2025 election, Albanese again pointed to Labor's Senate minority.
"We will engage with industry and with the environmental groups to make sure we get it right."
While Greens leader Adam Bandt regularly talks about "keeping Dutton out" and "making Labor better" — Albanese's refusal to answer questions about the very real possibility of an even bigger crossbench belies reality.
With polling within the margin of error, there is still every chance a minority government of either persuasion could be delivered — and it could come down to 'the vibe'.
