Australia is on track to meet its carbon emissions target under the Paris climate accord well before 2030 because of the growth in wind and solar power, a study has found.
The study published on Friday by Australian National University researchers contradicts a report last month calling for sharper emissions cuts.
With several big wind and solar farms opening over the past year and rapidly growing installation of rooftop solar panels, Australia is adopting renewable energy faster per capita than the rest of the world, the study said.
In signing on to the Paris Climate agreement, Australia committed to reaching carbon neutrality, or net zero carbon emissions, by 2050.
As an intermediate target, it promised that by 2030 it would reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 26 per cent below the levels recorded in 2005.
A new report from scientists at the Australian National University has found that intermediate target could be reached five years sooner if Australia's investment in renewable energy continues at the current rate.
Lead researcher Professor Andrew Blakers says Australia is a global leader.
"Australia is installing renewable energy at a rate four or five times faster per capita than China, Japan, the United States and the European Union," he said. "
This rapid build rate has important implications for greenhouse emissions. If we continue to do what we're doing right now then we'll meet our Paris emissions target five years early, in 2025."
Professor Blakers says private investment is driving the renewables boom, such as solar panels on roofs or businesses, or companies building windfarm or solar farms.
"What's happened is that the build rate, or the completion rate, of these solar and wind facilities really ramped up from mid-year 2018 and it shows no sign of tailing off," he said.
The pipeline of new wind and solar systems is averaging about 6.3 gigawatts (GW) a year, the study showed.
Based on the new renewable energy that has started in Australia since last June and is expected over the next few years, emissions will drop sharply from the power sector, offsetting possible increases from other sectors, such as transport and farms, the ANU researchers calculated.
Each extra gigawatt of renewables displaces about 2 million tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalent emissions from coal-fired power, the study said, implying Australia's pipeline of renewables would cut emissions by about 12 million to 13 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent a year.
Assuming other sectors' emissions grow by 2 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent a year, the net reduction would be about 10 million to 11 million tonnes a year, which would put Australia on track to meet its Paris target before 2030.
While encouraged by the finding that Australia's investment in renewables is rising, the Climate Council's Professor Andrew Stock says it is unrealistic to suggest the current rate of investment and installation will be sustained.
"The commercial reality is that the coal and fossil fuel industry are not going to give up without a very substantial fight," he said. "We know how effective they are in lobbying, and if the renewable sector just thinks that cost alone will deliver this current build rate into the future, they're going to be, and everyone will be, sorely disappointed."
The study, based on data from Australia's Clean Energy Regulator, was not commissioned by anyone, he said.
To meet Australia's Paris Climate accord commitment to cut carbon emissions by 26 per cent to 28 per cent from 2005 levels by 2030, emissions would have to fall to between 430 million and 442 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent.
As of the end of 2017, emissions had risen to 553.7 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent, according to data from Australia's National Greenhouse Gas Inventory.
Extrapolating from that figure, the Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development said last month Australia needed to cut emissions more sharply to meet its Paris target as the country remained heavily dependent on coal-fired power.
