It's a year today since Kevin Rudd's failed leadership tilt. And after his chances of resurrection seemed gone for all money towards the end of last year, the prospect now hangs in the air like a waiting storm.
Contrary to the protestations of those who'd rather it all went away, the speculation about a possible leadership change before this year's election is not just a media invention. They're talking about it inside the Labor Party too.
The hardheads at NSW Labor headquarters have made up their minds in favour of switching to Rudd and those spruiking their message are ramping up the pressure. The likes of Joel Fitzgibbon - the former Defence Minister overlooked by Julia Gillard for a return to the frontbench – and Hawke/Keating era minister Graham Richardson – now a Sussex Street mouthpiece when it suits – are seeking to expedite matters by talking up the need to move fast. They say it's essential that any change be made before the Budget in May. In fact, it's not essential at all but they want the waverers to feel the rising panic and make up their minds, pronto. But it does have to happen when Parliament is sitting because they need all the Labor MPs and senators together to do it.
At last official count, in February last year, Rudd secured only 31 votes to Gillard's 71 – a resounding defeat. While even the number-crunchers are refusing to put a figure on things right now, it's clear the former prime minister has more support today than he did back then.
But key senior Labor figures are digging in for Gillard. Former AWU secretary now Workplace Relations Minister Bill Shorten is seen as an essential member of any delegation if one was to be sent to tap the PM on the shoulder. He remains in her camp. Likewise, fellow former unionist, onetime ACTU secretary now Climate Change Minister Greg Combet. And former leader and, yes, former ACTU president Simon Crean is still defending Gillard too. For now.
In this conundrum, there are a few of what former US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld might have called “known knowns”. Gillard will not quit easily. If she is to be ousted, she'll have to be blasted out. She is somewhat determined.
And Rudd will not challenge. He's declared that repeatedly. He wants to be drafted and would probably prefer the party prostrate itself and issue a grovelling apology in the process.
Voters, so disdainful of Labor's habit of chucking out leaders when things get tough, are highly unlikely to accept any other alternative. Rudd is extremely popular and his return could be sold as righting a previous wrong. But even that argument won't wash with many jaded voters. A third candidate is hardly going to save the furniture.
In order to replace Gillard with Rudd, there would need to be either a no-confidence motion moved and passed resoundingly on the floor of the Labor caucus or the aforementioned delegation of executioners sent to the PM's office.
The first is a risky exercise and hardly blood-free. The second – at this stage – is a delegation with no members.
Those who despair of Labor's future under Gillard's leadership are reading the polls and receiving the diabolical public feedback in their electorates. Too many voters just don't like her, don't forgive her, don't want her. The same are telling them that Rudd would do better – maybe not well enough to win but maybe enough to save a good few of them.
But then there are those who will not countenance Rudd. It's not just his past interpersonal reputation as so colourfully described by senior colleagues in the lead-up to last year's challenge, though this is a not-insignificant factor for many. It's his attitude to the unions, the factions and the whole party structure. He is not of the Labor Party – not like they are - and certainly not of the labour movement. He had such authority upon his elevation in 2007 that he overrode the factions in selecting his ministry, overturning a longstanding Labor tradition and power balance. He gives no indication he'd be any different now.
Those factional warriors would not have the champion nor protector in Kevin Rudd that they have in Julia Gillard and so they would rather go over the cliff and be smashed at the bottom than watch a man they dislike dismantle their party's heritage.
So, this week at least, it's literally the irresistible force versus the immovable object. One way or another, something's gotta give.
