Key Points
- Theories about Cyclone Alfred having been engineered by humans are being spread online.
- Research on rain seeding has been carried out before but without great success.
- Scientists say chemtrails and a research facility in Alaska are not linked to cyclones..
As millions of people in the path of Tropical Cyclone Alfred await , an increasing amount of claims about the cyclone being engineered by humans are being shared online.
But is it even possible for a cyclone to be created by humans?
about weather modification are not new but of a rise in the proliferation of climate-related misinformation and disinformation being spread online.
When Hurricane Milton 4, claims about the weather system having been engineered by humans and manipulated by technology were addressed by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
The government organisation said it "does not modify the weather, nor does it fund, participate in or oversee cloud seeding or any other weather modification activities".
Cyclone Alfred
Cyclone Alfred formed over the Coral Sea on 20 February and its movement as it heads towards Australia has been described as erratic.
It is expected to cross the Queensland coast on Saturday between Noosa and Beenleigh.
If it does cross as a cyclone, it will be the first in more than five decades to make landfall so far down the east coast.
Source: SBS News
Adrian McCallum — discipline lead in engineering at the University of the Sunshine Coast's School of Science, Technology and Engineering — previously worked as a forecaster with the Australian Navy and said there was nothing to indicate Cyclone Alfred had been manufactured.
"I was intrigued, like many as to the existence of a cyclone this far south. But as we are aware, historically, it's occurred before," he said.
"Being an ex-meteorologist, I checked the sea surface temperatures from the Bureau (of Meterology)," he said.
People in Brisbane are preparing for expected heavy rain and damaging winds from Cyclone Alfred. Source: AAP / Jono Searle
"So it makes sense to me, cyclones need this warm water to both initiate and survive. That warm water is in existence there right now, so what we're seeing is consistent with what the sea surface temperature suggests and I'm not surprised that it's sustaining itself."
On average 11 cyclones develop over Australian waters each season and four cyclones cross the Australian coast each year as most lose strength. If they do cross the coast, most do so as a tropical low.
Cloud seeding
One Facebook user who has been sharing their thoughts on Cyclone Alfred to more than 4,000 followers described the weather system as "totally geoengineered".
McCallum said the simplest form of geo-engineering weather that some in the general population would be aware of is cloud seeding.
This is the introduction of tiny particles to clouds to form raindrops.
"So we can seed clouds to form rain, as long as there's appropriate atmospheric conditions in the first place," McCallum said.
"When it comes to cyclones, which are synoptic scale weather systems, hundreds of kilometres across, requiring vast amounts of energy to perform and to sustain themselves, the the level of heat required for us to manipulate that ... would be essentially impossible to achieve."
He said even if scientists were able to replicate cyclone generation in a laboratory, achieving this "in the real world would be nigh on impossible".
The conspiracy theory that condensation trails left behind by aeroplanes are actually trails of chemicals being purposely dispersed into the air has been around for decades. Source: Getty / picture alliance/dpa/picture alliance
"The US looked at this as part of Project Storm Fury," he said, referencing a 1960s project that tried to weaken tropical cyclones by flying aircraft into them and seeding them.
He said controlling the path of a cyclone would also be impossible because of the "vast amount of energy" that would be required.
"I can't think of a way of doing that, it’s as simple as that, nobody knows how to do it."
The HAARP theory
Social media posts have suggested the Alaska-based High-frequency Active Auroral Research Program (HAARP) played some role in Cyclone Alfred's conception.
HAARP had originally been a joint US navy and air force program but is now operated by the University of Alaska.
It researches radio wave propagation, ionospheric disturbances, and space weather effects.
Experts have told AAP FactCheck there's no evidence the Alaskan facility can affect weather.
Ionosphere and magnetosphere expert Professor Fred Menk from the University of Newcastle told the newswire HAARP's ionosphere activities do not affect weather formation in the stratosphere or the troposphere, which are many kilometres closer to ground level.
The High-frequency Active Auroral Research Program (HAARP) studies the properties and behavior of the ionosphere. Source: Getty / zorazhuang
Chemtrails and weather
Some on social media have suggested chemtrails have been sprayed by aircraft in a planned effort to manipulate the weather and may have resulted in the cyclone headed towards the east coast.
The idea that condensation trails left by aeroplanes could be the deliberate spread of chemicals has been a topic for discussion in online forums for decades.
McCallum said it was unlikely chemicals had been dispersed by aircraft in an effort to manipulate and any disturbance in the atmosphere made by the long white streams of water vapour left behind by jets was limited.
"There's lots of planes out there, but the volume or area of air that they disturb at any one time, to my mind, is pretty small in a spatio-temporal setting," he said.
"The spatial impact is limited, the time impact is limited. So yes, they are causing temporary perturbations in the atmosphere, unless they, for some reason, amplify and grow. And I can't quite characterise how that might occur."
Additional reporting by AAP.
