Is a ‘third intifada’ in the Middle East imminent?

Tensions between Israel and the Palestinians are again reaching boiling point, as Israeli forces tighten security in East Jerusalem to stop a recent wave of attacks since October 1. It has prompted questions of whether a new intifada - or uprising - is pending.

Members of the Israeli armed forces take up positions during clashes with Palestinian protesters in the West Bank city of Hebron

Members of the Israeli armed forces take up positions during clashes with Palestinian protesters in the West Bank city of Hebron Source: AAP

Clashes between Israel and the Palestinians have simmered for decades, but sometimes intensify and become something more.

On two occasions, the violence has spiked into full-blown uprisings with a combined death toll of almost 7,000 people.

The first intifada – an Arabic word meaning ‘uprising’ - took place across the West Bank and Gaza Strip from late 1987 and lasted almost six years.

The second spanned from September 2000 to 2005.

With tensions currently mounting around Jerusalem's Old City, there are now fears of a third intifada, dubbed by media agencies as a possible Leaderless Intifada.

Ingredients of intifada ‘missing’

Former Palestinian negotiator Khaled Elgindy says the key features of past intifadas are still missing.

"It's probably premature to call it the third intifada, because, the pieces that are needed, I don't quite see them being in place,” Mr Elgindy said.

“You need a mass mobilisation to be sustained. It needs to be sustained over time. And that requires organisation by the political actors on the ground, and we don't really see that yet."
A group of religious Jews escorted by Israeli police at Al-Aqsa Mosque compound in Jerusalem
A group of religious Jews escorted by Israeli police at Al-Aqsa Mosque compound in Jerusalem Source: AAP
Co-ordination between political actors is unlikely, with little or no cohesion between Gaza's Hamas government and Palestinian authorities in the West Bank, crucial to the past two intifadas.

Meanwhile, the Jerusalem area is under its most serious clampdown in 10 years, with hundreds of Israeli officials deployed in a bid to stem a wave of gun and knife attacks.

Palestinian protesters have clashed with Israeli troops over the increased security presence.

‘Security crackdown counter-productive’

Violence has also been partly triggered by Palestinians' anger over what they see as increased Jewish encroachment on the Al-Aqsa mosque compound.

The recent flare-up has seen deaths on both sides, but the number of Palestinians killed continues to outweigh the Israeli death toll.  

The Palestinian ambassador to the United Nations, Riyad Mansour, says imposing more security is counter-productive.
Mr Mansour believes the Israeli government needs to de-escalate the situation.

"Those militaristic forms [carried out] by the Israeli occupying authorities in bringing tens of thousands of soldiers and policemen and weapons in the hands of the settlers…they have to withdraw all these militaristic forms against our people," he said.

Calls for peace

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has told parliament Israel wants to finally strike a peace deal with the Palestinians.

"Israel wants peace. I want peace,” he said.

“It will be a tough negotiation because, in order to achieve peace, the Palestinians will have to finally recognise the Jewish national state's right to exist."  

But the Palestinian Authority president is refusing to take any blame for ongoing tensions in the region.
Mahmoud Abbas wants the United Nations to deploy a protective force in East Jerusalem to help quell the violence.

"We're not aggressive against anybody, and we don't like any aggression against our people,” a fired-up Abbas said.

“We're asking for the whole world, from the United Nations, we will not continue with the situation of this occupation. I will not give up to the policy of the occupier, which has been used by the Israelis, killing our children in cold blood."

The path to peace

Alex Ryvchen, from the Executive Council of Australian Jewry, has criticised Mr Abbas's comments, calling them "poisonous".

He says he believes peace can only be struck when Mr Abbas helps reduce the rate of attacks, rather than incite more.

"The minute that that sort of incitement stops, that sort of propaganda, those sorts of conspiracy theories, stop; and stop poisoning the minds of Palestinian youths. [It is] then we'll have a situation where we can have normal relations, where we can have normal negotiations towards the achievement of a Palestinian state,” Mr Ryvchen said.
“It will come not through violence, but it will come through bilateral negotiations. That's the only path."

But Khaled Elgindy says the only real way another intifada can be avoided is by creating an independent Palestine first.

"I think that has to begin in Jerusalem. The Jerusalem issue has been put off for far too long, and it is now sort of begging to be addressed," he said.


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4 min read
Published 15 October 2015 2:04pm
Updated 16 October 2015 8:58am
By Omar Dabbagh


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