Justin Trudeau’s attention was split between the flat screen TV and his three young children playing with their toy lightsabers in front of him. He ignored the media scrum gathered across the room.
Sitting on a sofa with his wife and mother, the former ski-instructor and teacher watched as the results of the 2015 Canadian election rolled in. Soon it would be confirmed that – like his revered father Pierre Trudeau 35 years before him – he too would become the next prime minister of Canada.
The landslide swing to the 43-year-old became clear on 19 October 2015 before voters in British Columbia's Western time zone had even finished casting their ballots. Conservative Stephen Harper had been dumped after nearly a decade as prime minister and Trudeau’s Liberal Party of Canada was on track to get 180 of 338 seats in parliament.
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Just four years earlier, his centre-left party had been all but wiped out, reduced to just 34 seats. Now Trudeau – who caught the nation’s attention with his emotional eulogy for his father as a 28-year-old – had captured the mood for change.
He addressed beaming crowds at a Montreal victory party in English and French, outlining his vision for an “optimistic” government, then turned his attention to the rest of the world.
“Many of you have worried that Canada has lost its compassionate and constructive voice in the world over the past ten years,” he said. “Well, I have a simple message for you; on behalf of 35 million Canadians, we’re back.”
From gender equality to baby pandas
For most outside of Canada, his election was the first they had heard of the young, photogenic politician. But fuelled by his bold steps towards diversity and a succession of viral media appearances, Trudeau would soon become a global sensation.
When asked at an early press conference why he had made it a priority to have a gender-balanced, ethnically diverse cabinet, he answered in three words: “Because it’s 2015.”
When the first of Canada’s 40,000 Syrian refugees arrived at Toronto airport the following December, he was there to meet them, with warm coats. His pro-refugees tweet in January last year was his most liked of 2017.
He has also while out for a jog in Vancouver, and got up close and cuddly with baby pandas at Toronto Zoo. The media has swooned.
A May 2017 issue of US Elle debated who was hotter: Trudeau or the freshly elected 39-year-old French President Emmanuel Macron? (). Rolling Stone’s August cover asked ‘Why can’t he be our president?’
And it didn’t stop there. The ‘Justin Trudeau, My Canadian Boyfriend’ calendar was released for 2018.
But as Trudeau’s social popularity holds overseas, his political support in Canada is waning.
Source: Rolling Stone
A calendar released for 2018. Source: Universe Publishing
Approval rating slump
An collated by national broadcaster CBC News showed a significant drop in his approval ratings since election two years ago; down from highs of 65 per cent through most of 2016 to below 50 per cent currently.
It’s still a figure most politicians would aspire to – Stephen Harper hit a low of 23 per cent during his tenure and only 41 per cent of Australians approve of Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull according to the latest Newspoll. But it’s a drop nevertheless.
Trudeau's approval rating since election. Source: CBC News
“The honeymoon is pretty much over,” Forum Research pollster Dr Lorne Bozinoff told SBS News.
She attributes it to Trudeau’s poorly received small-business tax reforms and controversy surrounding his finance minister Bill Morneau, who faced a conflict of interest allegation over his share portfolio.
The honeymoon is pretty much over - Dr Lorne Bozinoff, pollster
Revelations that Trudeau’s chief fundraiser Stephen Bronfman had shifted millions to offshore tax havens has also tarnished the prime minister’s image as an advocate for the middle-class.
And then there was to the private Bahamas island of Bells Cay – owned by a billionaire philanthropist. A Canadian watchdog declared last month that it broke ethics rules.
“Trudeau still polling well with his core demo: non-Canadians,” read a headline on Canadian satirical news website The Beaverton in November.
Broken promises
Trudeau has scored wins by legalising physician-assisted dying and campaigning for women’s rights. An official apology for Canada’s history of LGBT discrimination was also well received. But his relatively inexperienced cabinet has incurred some self-inflicted wounds, sparking criticism even from Liberal supporters.
Just months into the prime ministership, his government was clumsily defending a $15 billion arms deal with Saudi Arabia. The kingdom's intervention in Yemen has left more than 8,750 people dead, according to the UN.
“I think some of the magic is wearing off now,” Huguette Young, Trudeau biographer and long-time parliamentary journalist told SBS News.
Justin Trudeau in downtown Toronto in 2017. Source: Lucas Oleniuk / Toronto Star / Getty
“He had a whole trial of promises which really was never really realistic.”
Some of the magic is wearing off now - Huguette Young, Trudeau biographer
Trudeau’s promise to ditch the country’s first-past-the-post voting system was abandoned last year. His plan to legalise marijuana has also stalled.
A signature policy to establish an inquiry into the also ran into trouble with a number of indigenous groups saying they felt re-victimised.
Furthermore, Trudeau’s international advocacy for action on climate change has jarred with his support for oil projects at home. Canada is home to the world’s third-largest oil reserves after Venezuela and Saudi Arabia.
“No country would find 173 billion barrels of oil in the ground and just leave them there,” he told energy producers in Texas last year.
“Trudeau has tried to play on both sides,” Young said. “It’s a fine line to walk.”
What now for Trudeau?
Trudeau continues to battle two competing expectations: his father’s legacy, and his looks, his biographer says. His critics use them to write him off as lightweight and superficial.
One of them, Canadian columnist J.J. McCullough, told SBS News: “For older conservative people, it’s almost as preposterous or discombobulating to think that Justin Trudeau is prime minister as it is for young people in America making peace with the fact that Trump is their president.”
“It was only because the party was in such a desperate state that they went for this very, very high-risk candidate. If you were to ask the average Canadian what changes he’s actually made, they might struggle.”
But while the Conservative Party continues to hammer Trudeau on national security, Muslim immigration and growing government debt – he’s not going down without a fight.
“They’re doubling down on the same approaches they took to the last election, the same approaches that Canadians rejected,” Trudeau said of the opposition in November. “I wish them luck.”
And despite criticisms of his own government and a drop in his popularity, Trudeau’s brand still remains stronger than his rivals on the left and right. Polling averages predict he would be returned with a parliamentary majority if an election were held today, although the next one isn’t likely until 2019.
McCullough told SBS News: “The next election is Trudeau’s to lose, but if he gets elected the voters of Canada will not have the same stars in their eyes as they did last time.”
