As some European countries begin flattening their coronavirus curves and look to ease restrictions, experts say second and third peaks could occur should they be lifted too early.
Italy and Spain, Europe’s hardest-hit countries, were among the nations considering lifting their coronavirus measures on the other side of Easter, but ultimately decided to extend them for a few more weeks.
In Wuhan, China, the original epicentre of the virus, , and health officials around the world are now eagerly watching to see what happens there.
Clare Strachan, from the Nossal Institute for Global Health at the University of Melbourne, says any health officials looking to lift restrictions need to strike the right balance between economic activity, managing the number of cases, and overall societal wellbeing.
“It’s a delicate balance, and restrictions can’t stay forever," she told SBS News.
"What is likely (if they get lifted early) is that there will be a second peak because we won’t be anywhere near zero cases.
“There’s no way restrictions can be properly lifted until a vaccine is in place.”
'It will come back'
Daycare centres and primary schools in Denmark are set to reopen to most students by 14 April.
On 9 April, the Czech Republic rolled back various social distancing rules and said it planned to lift its travel ban on 14 April.
In Austria, where case growth has begun to slow, Chancellor Sebastian Kurz this week flagged the possibility of a “resurrection” the day after Easter Sunday with the reopening of small, non-essential shops on 14 April, followed by shopping malls and hairdressers by 1 May.
“We reacted faster and more restrictively than in other countries and could, therefore, avoid the worst,” Mr Kurz said, referring to a three-week lockdown that shut schools, bars, restaurants, theatres and more.
But Professor Jodie McVernon, the director of epidemiology at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, says there’s more to think about when reopening a country than just how many new cases are popping up.
She said countries need to develop effective measures to identify, isolate, and quarantine cases even after lockdowns begin to ease.
“The population remains vulnerable to reintroduction. This is why the ‘stamp it out’ and ‘resume our normal lives’ strategy proposed by some is so risky,” she said.
“While people aren’t immune and this virus is infecting people in the world around us - and we’re well past elimination - it will come back."
Health experts in Italy have urged the government to continue exercising caution, with more than 150 academics this week petitioning the government against a hasty reopening of the economy to avoid “irreversible damage, probably more serious than those caused by the virus itself".
Professor McVernon says striking the right balance is the “challenge of our generation.”
“Suppressing growth now (through lockdown measures) buys time for effective therapies and vaccines to become available, both of which would represent more definitive solutions to this challenge,” she says.
People in Australia must stay at least 1.5 metres away from others and gatherings are limited to two people unless you are with your family or household.
If you believe you may have contracted the virus, call your doctor (don’t visit) or contact the national Coronavirus Health Information Hotline on 1800 020 080. If you are struggling to breathe or experiencing a medical emergency, call 000.
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