An analysis of the latest opinion polls and betting markets points to the coalition winning the July 2 election - but not by much.
But the trend is away from the government as it prepares to deliver a budget on May 3.
Metapoll's calculation, taking into account the latest Newspoll, Ipsos, Morgan, Essential and ReachTel polls and combining it with up-to-date information from the betting markets, has the coalition leading Labor 51.1 per cent to 48.9 per cent.
