RBA tipped to sit tight on rates

The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to leave the cash rate at a record low of 1.5 per cent, as it weighs the flow of recent economic data.

The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to sit on interest rates for a 15th straight month as it weighs recent data that has indicated a weaker than expected trajectory for economic growth.

An AAP survey of 13 economists show all are convinced the central bank will leave the cash rate unchanged at a record low of 1.5 per cent at its November board meeting on Tuesday.

Of those 13 economists, only two expect the RBA to start lifting rates earlier than the second half of 2018.

The central bank last month sounded optimistic about an upswing in non-mining investment and a healthy infrastructure pipeline but signalled it remained worried that housing debt is growing faster than wages.

Those worries are likely to have been compounded by the flow of recent economic data.

A collapse in fruit and vegetable prices offset soaring electricity bills and kept inflation below the central bank's target range in September, ABS data showed.

Retail spending also slipped into negative territory in the September quarter, after a steady result for September followed back-to-back contractions in July and August.

Morgan Stanley strategist Daniel Blake says there will be little substantive change in the RBA's outlook, with solid labour market data and a depreciating exchange rate being tempered by retail weakness and substantial slack in the economy.

"The RBA is likely to reiterate its expectation for the economy to gradually strengthen, but we see scope for a moderate downgrade to its near-term GDP forecast as it moves its forecasts from ranges to point estimates," he said in a note.

The central bank has continued to maintain expectations for economic growth to improve to an annual three per cent rate for the next few years, despite growth so far trending below that level.

It is also targeting inflation to be in the two to three per cent range.

UBS economist George Tharenou says there has been no outright deterioration in the economic outlook but is arguing for a cut in both the GDP and headline inflation targets.

"We see the RBA lowering their numbers because their previous forecasts just had too much of an expected pick-up," he said.

He also expects RBA will cut its expectation for headline CPI (consumer price index) by a cumulative 50 basis points, given the less strong GDP outlook.

The Reserve Bank will announce its interest rate decision at 1430 AEDT on Tuesday.


Share
3 min read

Published

Source: AAP


Share this with family and friends