Large swathes of eastern and northern Australia will have a wet spring, but bushfire risks will persist for southeast Queensland, the seasonal bushfire outlook has warned.
Dry conditions are also likely to persist in parts of Western Australia, elevating the fire threat.
The Australian Seasonal Bushfire Outlook issued for September to November found the 2020-21 fire season will be driven by different phenomena to the past two seasons, with an active La Nina alert likely to bring plenty of wet weather.
The outlook found that as well as the 70 per cent likelihood of La Nina forming this year, a negative Indian Ocean Dipole also made a wet spring in eastern Australia more likely.
Despite the moisture, the outlook found parts of Queensland - particularly the state's populous southeast - face above-average fire potential in the spring months.
"While these wetter conditions in eastern Australia will help for spring, they may lead to an increase in the risk of fast-running fires in grasslands and cropping areas over summer," Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC chief Richard Thornton said in a statement on Monday.
Victoria's bushfire front could also shift from the state's east to the west this summer without rain spurred by La Nina.
Emergency Management Victoria Commissioner Andrew Crisp acknowledged the outlook painted a "very different picture" to last year's quarterly update, which noted above-average fire conditions for eastern Victoria.
The forecast proved despairingly true as vast tracts of East Gippsland and Victoria's northeast were devastated by fires in December and January.
"Even though it's been some time, it's probably etched in our brains and memories in relation to the impact on those particular communities," Mr Crisp told reporters on Monday.
"We'll be thinking about them as we move into this particular summer."
East Gippsland is poised for a reprieve this summer because of stronger winter rainfall, Mr Crisp said.
But the Mallee, Wimmera and state's far southwest have not enjoyed the same levels of wet weather and will need more to eradicate some underlying dryness.
"It does present a risk as we move into summer," Mr Crisp said.
While 2020 has brought a return to average rainfall patterns across Australia after a drought-stricken 2019, the bushfire outlook warned conditions have remained dry in central and southeast Queensland, Western Australia and parts of South Australia.
Fires tear through bushland at Bairnsdale in Victoria's East Gippsland region. Source: Victorian Government
Temperatures in Australia last year were the warmest in 110 years of records.
"Fire is a regular occurrence across Australia and it is important to remember that areas designated as normal fire potential will still see fires. When the wind is up and the weather is warm, fires can occur right across the country," Dr Thornton said.
National body
Meanwhile, interim observations from the royal commission into national natural disaster arrangements have suggested a body such as the national cabinet be tasked with managing the response to future bushfires.
"The functions of the national cabinet, or a similar peak intergovernmental decision-making body, could be adopted for the national management of future natural disasters," the commission said in its report on Monday.
Fires that raged across 10 million hectares last summer took the lives of 33 Australians and destroyed 10,000 homes and other structures.
More than 80,000 head of livestock were destroyed and millions of native plants and animals were lost, including severe impacts on many World Heritage areas.
The report said trying to set up agencies while natural disasters are unfolding can be "disruptive, delay necessary and immediate assistance and create confusion".
"There may be benefit in a single, scalable standing body responsible for natural disaster recovery and resilience at the Australian government level," the commission said.
"Such a body would be responsible for Commonwealth recovery co-ordination, prioritisation, policy and collation of relevant data."
