A rare three-way contest in Australia's newest electorate will pit sheep farmers against suburban voters worried about cost-of-living pressures.
The Western Australian electorate of Bullwinkel spans 9,508 square kilometres and includes nine rural and outer metropolitan shires in east Perth.
The electorate is named in honour of who endured three-and-a-half-years as a prisoner of war during World War Two and later dedicated her life to health care.
In what is expected to be a tight election, the diverse electorate is seen as up for grabs and is one of the most unpredictable contests this election.
A tight three-way race with national implications
Bullwinkel includes areas taken from the rural electorates of Durack and O’Connor, as well as outer metropolitan areas of Perth previously located in the electorates of Hasluck, Swan, Canning and Burt.
Based on the previous voting patterns of these areas, Bullwinkel is notionally a Labor seat held with a 3.3 per cent margin, but that is based on the party's unusually good results in the 2022 federal election when it won nine of the then 15 Western Australian seats.
"In a normal election year, it would probably be a marginal Liberal seat," Curtin University political analyst John Phillimore said.
This means the race is far from settled.
The electorate of Bullwinkel takes in some rural areas and outer metropolitan suburbs of Perth. Source: SBS News
She says her nursing career has shaped her values of compassion and fairness. Having raised her family locally, she is campaigning on economic relief and cost-of-living support.
If she manages to secure the seat this would help buffer Labor against possible losses in other seats.
The party is aiming to hold onto all nine of its WA seats, especially key electorates that played a crucial role in securing Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s victory.
Marginal seats such as Tangney — a traditional Liberal stronghold — are held by Labor with a narrow 2.8 per cent margin.
Australian PM Anthony Albanese congratulates Labor member for Tangney Sam Lim after signing the Labor Caucus book in 2022. Lim holds Tangney which has a 2.8 per cent margin. Source: AAP / Lukas Coch
The Liberals and Nationals in WA often clash over policies in state parliament, and if they fail to work together at the federal level, it could divide the conservative vote.
The Liberals and Nationals face policy tensions at a state level, raising questions about their unity at the federal level. Source: SBS News / Christopher Tan
But Nationals candidate Mia Davies, a former WA state Opposition leader, is the most high-profile contender in the race. She is expected to centre her campaign on rural issues,
The economic divide
Two dominant issues are shaping the contest: The rising cost of living in suburban areas; and the federal government's decision to phase out live sheep exports, a move that has deeply unsettled regional voters.
Sheep farmer Peter Boyle, whose family has farmed in the region since 1855, faces an uncertain future.
York sheep farmer Peter Boyle fears the live export ban will devastate rural businesses, with sheep trading already dropping from 30 per cent to 1 per cent of his operation. Source: SBS News / Christopher Tan
"At its peak, sheep trading was 30 per cent of our business. Now it's only about 1 per cent."
The live sheep export ban will take effect by 1 May 2028.
Labor campaigned on the policy in its 2019 and 2022 election campaigns, citing animal welfare concerns.
Then agriculture minister Murray Watt pointed to a shift away from exports and towards local meat processing, arguing the ban would create jobs.
But there were warnings farmers would leave the industry and rural communities would shrink.
Confidence in Western Australia's sheep industry is plummeting, with the imminent live export ban making sheep farming financially unviable for many producers. Source: SBS News / Christopher Tan
In response, the "Keep the Sheep" campaign was launched, with farmers staging protests, including at a parliamentary hearing held in Perth.
The hearing included a fiery moment when Kojonup farmer Steve McGuire responded to questions from committee chair Meryl Swanson about how farming organisations were helping members to transition.
"There are thousands of (farmers) out there ... we are not dumb country hicks that live in a vacuum," McGuire said in June.
The ban also has international consequences. The Jordanian ministry of agriculture told SBS News last year that it urged the government to "reconsider or postpone the decision", saying it would cost jobs in Jordan and damage trade relations.
Since then, the Coalition, led by Nationals leader David Littleproud, has vowed to reverse the ban if elected.
A young boy holds a sign at a farmers' protest last year, opposing the Federal Government's ban on live sheep exports, a decision that has sparked widespread backlash across rural communities. Source: SBS News / Christopher Tan
"We are an important part of their food security. We should be a trusted partner they can rely on."
Despite all this, Phillimore says live exports won't be a decisive election issue.
"Live sheep exports will be important for some people, but I don't think it's a major vote shifter."
Suburban struggles: The cost-of-living crisis
For suburban voters, mortgage stress, inflation and job security are the biggest concerns.
Local barber Hussein Naser, a father of four who runs his own business, says rising costs are making it harder to stay afloat.
Hussein Naser, who runs a barber in the outer suburban Perth seat of Bullwinkel, says the cost of living crisis is his biggest concern this election. Source: SBS News / Christopher Tan
I've had to cut staff because customers stopped spending enough money.
"Those who used to come for a haircut every two weeks now come once a month. Those who came monthly are now coming every two months."
Naser is sceptical about politicians' campaign promises.
"Politicians may promise 10 things, but how many of those 10 things will actually get done," he said.
Hussein Naser says politicians will need to work harder to earn his vote this election, as rising costs and financial pressures leave him sceptical of political promises. Source: SBS News / Christopher Tan
When asked about whether her focus on cost-of-living issues risked alienating farmers, she defended her approach.
"I'm campaigning on the issues that matter to the people," Cook told SBS News.
"I've been a nurse for a long time, and I've lived in this area for over 20 years, I know this area very well."
Labor candidate for Bullwinkel, Trish Cook (centre, red jacket), looks on as Prime Minister Anthony Albanese speaks to health staff in Perth. Source: AAP / Aaron Bunch
National lessons from WA's state election
showed Labor's aggressive cost-of-living campaign resonated with voters.
Analysts suggest the failure of the Liberals and Nationals to work together saw votes remain with Labor, securing them another landslide result.
The Greens won enough seats to hold the balance of power in the upper house.
While state and federal politics differ, Bullwinkel is a litmus test for the upcoming federal election.
And with no sitting member, the seat is up for grabs — making it one of the most unpredictable contests this election.
