The state of play as Greenland decides its future under the shadow of Donald Trump

When Donald Trump first suggested buying Greenland from Denmark in 2019, people thought it was a joke. Since winning re-election, the US president has ramped up the rhetoric about annexing the Arctic island.

Houses covered by snow on the coast of a sea inlet in Greenland

Most of Greenland's surface is covered by ice, with just 20 per cent of its landmass habitable. Source: AAP / Evgeniy Maloletka/AP

It's not often that Greenland — or its elections — garner much international attention.

But the remote Arctic island has been thrust into the spotlight thanks to Donald Trump's renewed push to acquire it as a territory of the United States.

While typical concerns, like the cost of living, were a feature of Greenland's election campaign — the vote was held overnight — the US president's comments have fired up debate over Greenland gaining independence from Denmark.

Who owns Greenland?

Greenland was colonised by the Danish in the 18th century, and integrated into the Kingdom of Denmark in 1953.

The island was given its own parliament and the power to make some laws since 1979 — but its foreign, defence, and monetary policy is still controlled by Denmark.

In 2009, the Danish parliament passed a law allowing Greenlanders to hold a referendum on independence at the time of their choosing.
A map showing how far away Greenland is from Denmark and the United States
While Denmark has played a significant role in Greenland's past and present, the US wants a role in its future. Source: SBS News
But Greenland's economy is heavily reliant on an annual block grant from Denmark, which currently contributes around a fifth of the semi-autonomous territory's annual GDP and makes up half of its budget.

Denmark is also responsible for many of Greenland's costly public services, including defence.

This support would likely disappear after independence, leaving the dwindling fisheries industry the main contributor to Greenland's economy.

US-Greenland history

Trump first confirmed he was considering buying Greenland from Denmark in 2019, saying it would be "essentially a large real-estate deal".

Since being re-elected last November, Trump has reiterated his desire to annex Greenland several times.

But US interest in the island isn't new: the nation has considered and made several attempts to buy it since the 19th century.

In the 1823 Monroe Doctrine, the US said Greenland was part of its sphere of influence.
Almost a century later, in 1917, the United States acquired the US Virgin Islands (formerly Danish Virgin Islands) from Denmark and recognised Denmark's sovereignty over Greenland.

During World War Two, when Denmark was occupied by Germany, Greenland came under US protection and was returned to Denmark at the end of the war.

The US maintained several large military bases during that period and one of them, Pituffik — in the island's north-west — is still in use.

The US also has a consulate in Nuuk, Greenland's capital and most populous city with about 20,000 inhabitants. Greenland's total population is about 56,000.

Why is independence an election issue in Greenland now?

While Greenlanders have been able to decide if and when they want to hold an independence vote for over 15 years, the main sticking point has been over the timing of a vote and the potential impact self-governance could have on living standards.

Trump's remarks brought debate over the island's future to the forefront of the election campaign, with some giving them leverage ahead of independence negotiations with the Danish government.

Others believe the US president's ambitions make continued ties with Denmark more attractive, at least for the time being.

Opinion polls suggest that most Greenlanders oppose joining the US, although a majority favour eventual independence from Denmark.

The party — or coalition of parties — that forms government after the election will ultimately decide if and how an independence vote happens in the next term.
People queue outside a building in the snow
Greenlanders went to the polls overnight to decide their next government. Source: AAP / Mads Claus Rasmussen/AP

What would Greenland get from becoming a US territory?

How much autonomy Greenland would retain under potential US rule is unclear, as is how much economic support it would receive.

On the weekend, Trump urged Greenlanders to become "a part of the greatest nation anywhere in the world, the United States of America", promising to make them "rich".

Regardless, politicians in Denmark and Greenland have repeatedly said the semi-autonomous territory is "not for sale".

When asked in January if he would rule out using "military or economic coercion" to secure Greenland, Trump said: "No, I can't assure you on either of those two."

Why does Donald Trump want Greenland?

The Arctic region has become increasingly strategic as a battleground for global powers, with both Russia and China intensifying military activity in the region.

Rising temperatures and melting ice are also opening new and shorter shipping routes, reinforcing Greenland's strategic position.

"We need it really for international world security. And I think we're going to get it," Trump said in an address to Congress earlier this month.
Greenland's rare earths — demand for which is expected to surge in the future for use in things such as electric batteries — are estimated at 36.1 billion tonnes by the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS).

But its rare earths reserves — those that are economically and technically recoverable — amount to only about 1.5 million tonnes, according to the latest report from the US Geological Survey.

Public opposition to uranium mining in the island's south has led to legislation banning any mining of radioactive materials.

Greenland is believed to be sitting on an abundance of oil and gas, but has suspended exploration out of concern for the climate and aims to develop hydropower instead.

Melting glaciers are also releasing a mineral-rich rock flour that can be used as a fertiliser in depleted or arid soil in Africa and South America.

With additional reporting by Agence France-Presse

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5 min read
Published 12 March 2025 4:12pm
By Amy Hall
Source: SBS News


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