More than 70 million Americans have already cast their ballot ahead of the United States presidential election on 3 November.
That’s almost three times the Australian population and more than 50 per cent of the total votes cast in the last presidential election, according to the . The record-breaking number means the country could be on track for its biggest voter turnout on record.
Because unlike in Australia - where heading to your local public school, casting your vote and chowing down on a democracy sausage is a compulsory excursion - Americans are not required to vote.
That was made starkly clear in 2016 when just 55 per cent of people eligible to vote in the US did so - the lowest turnout in 20 years. The 2018 midterms, though, saw an almost 100-year high with just over 50 per cent of eligible voters participating.
Based on early voting, the number of ballots cast this year is likely to be much higher.
Early voting at State Farm Arena in Atlanta, Georgia. Source: AAP
“We expect that we are going to break records,” said John Fortier, the director of government studies at the Bipartisan Policy Centre in Washington.
“Seeing 65 per cent, for us that would be a very large increase, the highest in a very, very long time. Perhaps we will even get up to 70, high 60s, that would be extraordinary for us.”
By comparison, in the almost 100 years since Australia introduced mandatory voting in 1924, voter turnout has .
Would the US introduce mandatory voting?
There has never been a concerted push to make voting mandatory in the US like in Australia, and political experts say this is likely because Americans don’t like being told what to do.
Built into the United States Bill of Rights is the civil rights and liberties of the individual, with personal freedom dictating much of the country’s political discourse.
“To basically mandate having to go to the polls would be something that might be considered highly un-American when it comes to political culture,” said Gorana Grgic, a politics expert at the University of Sydney’s US Studies Centre.
But while there are no plans for a mandatory voting system, some states have moved to make it easier for people to become registered to vote.
Just like Australia, in every US state, except North Dakota, residents need to be registered to vote before they are allowed to head to the polls.
But unlike Australia, where federal elections are regulated by a national body (the Australian Electoral Commission), each American state is permitted to set its own rules. That includes what methods of voting are acceptable, what deadlines are in place, and how someone can register to vote.
Over the past few years, a number of states have moved to make it easier for people to vote by automatically registering residents who apply for government services or a drivers licence, and making it opt-out rather than opt-in.
People queue outside an early voting station in Manhattan a week before the US presidential election. Source: AAP
A report from The Brennan Centre for Justice last year found automatic registration resulted in a 93 per cent increase in registrations in Georgia, 60 per cent in Vermont, and 47 per cent in Rhode Island.
But Mr Fortier says there has also been resistance to the idea of automatic registration.
“I do think there is resistance to the idea of the government telling Americans that they have to go to the polls,” he said.
“Many people believe that finding better ways of voting, removing obstacles, getting the word out is all to the good - but the point of saying it is required by law that you show up at the polling place, at least up until this point, hasn’t really been something that’s in the American psyche.”
While it is unlikely nationwide mandatory voting will be implemented any time soon, former US President Barack Obama believes it would be “transformative” for US politics.
“We really are the only advanced democracy on Earth that systematically and purposely makes it really hard for people to vote,” he said in 2016.
“In Australia and some other countries, there is mandatory voting. It would be transformative if everybody voted ... it would completely change the political map in this country."
What would happen if everybody voted?
Conventional wisdom states that Democrats are more likely to benefit from increased voter turnout. That is based on a .
Firstly, young people - who traditionally have the lowest rates of voting - tend to lean more Democratic. That is also often true of marginalised groups such as migrants, minorities and the working class.
“On the whole, we can say as America becomes more diverse, the expectation is for Democrats to gain from that,” Dr Grgic said.
But Mr Fortier says the actual impact of compulsory voting would be more complicated.
“I think if we brought in everybody who could vote, the results would tilt somewhat to the left,” he said. “But we do have shifts in turnout. There are Republican-leaning voters who aren’t turning out either, especially their newfound or recently found strength among the more industrial, or white working-class, non-college-educated voters.”
Of particular interest in this year's election are the 23 million eligible Generation Z voters, aged between 18 and 23, who are expected to vote in record numbers. As well as being young, they are also the most ethnically and racially diverse age group, according to the .
When combined, Gen Z and Millennials (24 to 39-year-olds) are set to form the largest voting bloc, making up almost 40 per cent of eligible voters, with many taking to .
Campaign groups such as NextGen America are also seeking to ensure young people specifically are registered and ready to vote, reaching out through social media, direct messages, and in-person.
“We get young voters excited about the fact that they can make an impact on our political system, but they can’t fight for the issues that matter without showing up at the polls,” its website reads.
Since it was founded in 2013, NextGen America says it has registered 1.3 million voters.
Mandatory voting would also have huge implications for how candidates organise their campaign. Usually, in systems with mandatory voting, candidates put their energy into encouraging centre voters to come over to their side. In the US though, candidates are required to “convince the unconvinced” to go out and vote.
“This time around in 2020, I think there are not a lot of those unconvinced ones. I think everyone has pretty much made up their minds by this point,” Dr Grgic said.
The coronavirus 'wildcard'
While the massive early voting numbers suggest high voter turnout, Mr Fortier, who authored a book on early voting trends, has cautioned against “trying to read the tea leaves” before election day.
For example, it is unclear how much of the early voting is down to election enthusiasm and how much is a result of people changing their voting method due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
“The pandemic is a wildcard,” Mr Fortier said. “It’s possible that this is just a big rush at the beginning.”
Traditionally, high mail voting numbers do not necessarily translate into increased turnout, Mr Fortier said, just the same number of people voting in a different way.
And with social distancing concerns during the pandemic, it is possible more people than ever are opting to cast their vote by mail or in-person early to avoid big crowds on polling day.
“There are a couple of different issues here that we need to consider, but we do see the enthusiasm spilling into these numbers that are just phenomenal,” Dr Grgic said.
“It’s certainly telling us that democracy is not on its deathbed, but it’s being tested for sure.”
