NATO has limitations when it comes to resolving the conflict in Ukraine, but experts say its role in inflicting pain on Russia remains crucial.
The treaty organisation has offered plenty in the way of political, economic and defensive military support to Ukraine since Russia launched its invasion on 24 February. But it has so far refused to support what Ukraine wants most: a no-fly zone over the country.
Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has criticised NATO for being "afraid of confrontation with Russia" and has even cooled its desire to join the alliance it was once so desperate to join.
So, as the conflict in Ukraine reaches new catastrophic depths, how important is NATO in mounting pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin and helping to resolve the conflict? And how significant is the role of non-NATO countries like Australia?
What is NATO and how do you join?
NATO - or the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation – was created in 1949 in the aftermath of World War II, mainly in response to the threat posed by the Soviet Union.
Its purpose was to secure peace in Europe, to promote co-operation among its members and to guard their freedom.
Its 12 founding members included the United States, United Kingdom, Canada and several western European countries.
Since then, many other nations have joined including Greece, Turkey, Germany, Spain and former Soviet bloc countries, taking the overall membership now to 30. Some European countries such as Sweden and Finland have chosen to remain neutral and not participate in the military alliance.
NATO guarantees the freedom and security of its members through political and military means.
Article 5 of the treaty reads “an armed attack against one ... shall be considered an attack against them all”.
London School of Economics NATO expert Dr Luca Tardelli said at its core, NATO is about mutual defence.
“It was really a treaty that allowed western European members at the time to be assured of the American-especially commitment to the defence of Europe,” he told SBS News.
In order to join NATO, a country must be European, follow democratic principles and contribute to the security of the Euro-Atlantic area.
It then joins what’s known as the membership action plan, which provides tailored support on meeting requirements.
A new country must be unanimously approved by NATO members.
The final step is for the country to adopt its own ratification bill through a referendum or parliamentary vote.
Mr Tardelli says the whole process can be lengthy.
“It takes years of course for these reforms to take place, things like the democratic control of armed forces, to ensure the country can guarantee the rule of law, can guarantee a certain democratic standard.”
Why does Ukraine want to be in NATO and why isn't it?
“It’s pretty obvious why Ukraine wants to join NATO, because it can see that is how it could get security from Russia or anyone else who wants to attack it. But just now it’s not going to happen,” former UK Ambassador to Ukraine Robert Brinkley told SBS News.
John Blaxland is a professor of International Security and Intelligence Studies at the Australian National University, and says for Ukraine, the appeal of Europe over Russia is "understandable".
NATO foreign ministers gather for a meeting following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, at the Alliance's headquarters in Brussels on March 4, 2022. Source: Getty / Oliver Douliery
In 2008, NATO promised to admit Ukraine once it met its criteria, but a key sticking point is its unresolved external territorial disputes.
“Allowing Ukraine in would have raised other problems for NATO; would NATO members be ready in case to step up and come to the defence of Ukraine in the case of confrontation? Of course, this is the main reason why ultimately there was a delay in the accession plan — there was a debate around NATO and that’s why it has not happened yet,” Mr Tardelli said.
Russia strongly opposes Nato expansion to include Ukraine as it sees the country and other non-members as a buffer. Source: SBS News
In hindsight, Mr Blaxland believes the discussions on Ukraine joining NATO were ultimately "naive".
"The idea that you could discuss the idea of its NATO membership and not get a reaction from Russia was patently naive and now that's become clear."
How useful has NATO been in previous conflicts?
NATO's success in past conflicts has been "very mixed, at best", Mr Blaxland says.
In the Kosovo War, which began in 1998 and was fought between the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (Serbia and Montenegro) and the Kosovo Liberation Army, NATO intervened in 1999 without the blessing of the UN Security Council. Its airstrikes caused hundreds of civilian deaths and huge numbers of Kosovar refugees.
A USAF F-15E Strike Eagle on a mission against targets in Yugoslavia March 29, 1999. Source: Getty / USAF
Attacking Serbia, a Russian ally, also strained NATO relations with Russia, Mr Blaxland says.
"That arguably contributed to a breakdown in confidence and trust with Russia - Serbia being a close security partner of Russia and a culturally close country as well."
In 2003, NATO took the lead of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan, with the aim of ensuring the Afghans could provide effective security to fight off terrorism. NATO describes it as its "most challenging mission to date". The ISAF was disbanded in 2014 and Afghan forces assumed full security responsibility for their country. Afghanistan came once again under Taliban rule in August 2021.
Meanwhile, the invasion of Iraq, also in 2003, divided the alliance, with some NATO countries joining and others choosing not to.
An Afghan boy passes German ISAF forces while on patrol along the Jalalabad highway on the outskirts of Kabul, Afghanistan on Wednesday, Oct 8, 2003. Source: Getty / AP/Richard Vogel
"This had an incredibly corrosive effect on Western coherence and resolve," Mr Blaxland said.
Then in 2011, a multi-state NATO-led coalition began military action in Libya, imposing no-fly zones over the country. This again overstepped the mark of what the UN Security Council had agreed and is widely believed to have led to the overthrow of leader Muammar Gaddafi and contributed to the ongoing troubles in Libya.
What does Vladimir Putin think of NATO?
"NATO's responsibility to protect has been badly tarnished," Mr Blaxland says, with previous conflicts contributing to Mr Putin's belief that NATO is a "pushover".
He adds that the Russian president gained even greater confidence after 2014 when his nation invaded and annexed Crimea, and started to control the southeastern Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, known collectively as Donbas.
"His ability to sustain the sanctions since then, and the internal wranglings and debates in Europe over what next, particularly following the [Donald] Trump years and the apparent weak-kneed administration of [US President] Joe Biden, have given Putin the confidence to take a gamble and invade.
"Putin knows that NATO is a shadow of its former self and NATO has always been defensively orientated, with countries joining NATO not out of a desire to gang up on Russia but out of a fear of Russia."
Chatham House Russia analyst Keir Giles agrees that Russia's behaviour is the key driver for countries joining the alliance.
“Russia fails to understand that countries want to join NATO precisely because of Russia’s behaviour as opposed to NATO being an expansionist organisation that tries to bring them in,” he told SBS News.
Georgia and Bosnia and Herzegovina have also formally requested membership. Sweden, Finland and Serbia are also considering joining the alliance prompted by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Source: SBS News
“The reason why Russia doesn’t want any of its neighbours to join NATO is very simple. If they do, it stops Russia [from] doing to those neighbours exactly what it’s doing to Ukraine now. NATO is a stabilising influence because it makes sure that Russian aggression is contained.”
But the military capabilities of member organisations have severely decreased in recent decades — and Mr Putin knows it, Mr Blaxland says.
"These states have not been thinking that they need to confront Russia," he said.
"And armed forces can't be expanded overnight. And is that what they want to do and confront a nuclear-armed Russia?
"This is the stuff of nightmares."
So how important is NATO's role in Ukraine now?
Former UK ambassador to Ukraine Robert Brinkley says it's in NATO's best interest to help Ukraine.
“They’re receiving a lot of political and economic support as well as defensive military support and that is because Ukraine is a democracy, it’s a free sovereign country which has come under unprovoked premeditated attack.”
But NATO assistance isn’t extending to what Ukraine wants most — a no-fly zone over Ukraine — because NATO fears that will lead to a direct conflict with Russia.
This resistance has recently caused Ukraine to walk back its desire to join the world's most powerful military alliance.
Nevertheless, Mr Blaxland believes NATO's role remains "fundamentally important" in inflicting pain on Russia.
This will be done through economic sanctions, through the supply of food, medical and military equipment to Ukraine, and also in infiltrating the Russian media.
"That will undermine Putin's confidence in his ability to go harder and still have the Russian people back him," he said.
And what is the role of non-NATO countries like Australia?
Mr Blaxland believes Australia has a critical "demonstration" effect on neighbouring countries that are weighing up how to respond to the crisis in Ukraine.
"Our neighbours in the Pacific and in southeast Asia look quite closely at what Australia does."
Australia is also eager to support NATO action over Ukraine to safeguard its future interests in Asia, he says.
"In the future, it may well want to call on NATO to support Australia and allies in a crisis. That may not look like a direct invasion of Taiwan. It probably won't. But it will look ugly and it will require international solidarity and for that reason, among others, it's critical that Australia continues to support the NATO position through lethal aid and sanctions."
With mounting pain on Russia, what's the best NATO can hope to achieve?
Pain on Russia will be crucial in bringing Mr Putin to the negotiating table, Mr Blaxland says.
"Putin has to see Russia's greatness at risk. You need to bleed Russia enough for them to feel enough pain where they need to find a compromise too."
He believes President Zelenskyy may slowly be recognising that Ukraine may have to give some concessions to Russia — with NATO unwilling to support a no-fly zone and Mr Putin's resolve appearing stronger than Mr Biden's.
But what might that compromise look like?
No one knows at this point, but Mr Blaxland believes that as part of an eventual deal, it's possible Ukraine may be prohibited from joining NATO.
"That compromise might be a Ukraine that is geographically smaller, that excludes Crimea and Donbas, but regains some Ukrainian territory and as a deal they agree to a form of union with the EU but exclusive of NATO," he said.
"That's what the West should be aiming for and I think it's achievable."
