Where are the key battlegrounds in 2016?

SBS World News Radio: As the long, cold winter federal-election campaign draws to a close, the latest opinion polls indicate the Coalition is most likely to win the election.

Where are the key battlegrounds in 2016?

Where are the key battlegrounds in 2016?

Predictions of a hung parliament seem unlikely to come true.

The polls show the number of people planning to vote for the independents or Greens has dropped 3 per cent, with those voters switching their allegiance to the Coalition.

To win government in its own right, Labor needs 19 seats in the House of Representatives.

After losing the 2013 election, the party was left holding just 55 seats.

The Coalition swept to power with 75 seats for the Liberals and 15 seats for the Nationals, giving it a combined 90.

With electoral-boundary redistributions last year, the Coalition went into the election with, more realistically, 88 seats.

Those redistributions meant Labor entered the election with, notionally, 57.

Also, in the House of Representatives, the Greens hold one seat, and Independents hold another three.

And as it stands in the polls, Labor is not securing enough votes in key marginal seats in Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania to win the election.

A Newspoll looking at marginal seats suggests Labor will win only one to three seats, with two others in reach.

The results across those marginals suggest Labor would win the new Perth electorate of Burt with a swing of 8 per cent.

In the Government's second-most marginal seat, Capricornia in central Queensland, which it barely holds, Labor's primary vote has gone backwards, leaving the parties even at 50-50.

Labor and the Liberals are also tied in Macarthur, on Sydney's south-western fringe, where the Nick Xenophon Team has captured 7 per cent of the vote in the polls.

Former Liberal prime minister John Howard says he does not think Nick Xenophon's popularity will have an effect on the House of Representatives.

"He obviously has polled well in the past in the Senate, but I don't believe he'll get any lower-house seats. But, we're pragmatic people. We don't take any of these things for granted. I've seen enough of politics to know that people get into an awful pickle if they take things for granted. And that's why we're not doing that here and we're not doing it anywhere else."

There are seven other seats where the Opposition needs a swing of between 3 and 6 per cent to win.

They include the Queensland electorates of Herbert and Brisbane, Victoria's Dunkley and Corangamite, Robertson and Lindsay in New South Wales, and Bass in northern Tasmania.

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull says the Coalition must hold marginal electorates in western Sydney to win the election, particularly in Lindsey.

"It's critical, because, if we hold this seat, then we will be returned to government, and then we will be able to carry out our national economic plan. Our national economic plan sets out a range of measures, and you know what they are: innovation, investing in our advanced manufacturing through our big defence programs, re-equipping our armed forces so that we do so in a way that we support jobs and growth and technology here."

In Mayo in South Australia, Newspoll suggests a sizeable swing against the Government, putting the Nick Xenophon Team ahead 52 per cent to 48 per cent.

Senator Xenophon is playing down the fact his party may decide the winner in at least two marginal seats in the state.

But he does not dismiss the possibility his party may take seats from the major parties.

"We are running (in) those seats to win. In a lot of country electorates, there is a lot of disaffection. (In) Hindmarsh, Daniel Kirk is doing really well. Karen Hockley in the seat of Boothby is putting in a big campaign. And Dr Mathew Wright is running against Christopher Pyne in Sturt, although Christopher seems to have limitless resources to fight that campaign."

Labor leader Bill Shorten says he has not given up on the chance of winning the election.

"I'm not chasing people's second preferences. I'm not worried about the Greens or whatever those people care to try to dial themselves in in relevance. They have none in this debate. Labor will form a government. And one thing is for sure, we're not going back into any form of coalition with the minor parties or the Greens, full stop."

Meanwhile, polling commissioned by the Greens in early June suggests Assistant Treasurer Kelly O'Dwyer's Liberal seat in Melbourne, once considered safe, could be at risk.

The polling shows the Greens candidate in Higgins, Jason Ball, on a primary vote of 24.1 per cent.

If he picks up preferences from Labor, it could be enough to topple Ms O'Dwyer.

And the Greens say they still hope to pull off an upset and unseat Labor in the Victorian seats of Wills and Batman.

Dr Di Natale says he is quietly confident of his party having real political influence after the election.

"The Greens are demonstrating that politics doesn't have to be a two-horse race, even if parts of the media and political establishments see it that way. The hard political reality is that the vote for the major parties has been dropping consistently over time, and it's a trend that shows no sign of reversing."

The Coalition can afford a net loss of 12 seats without losing majority government.

Based on recent polls, Labor would need a uniform national swing of almost 5 per cent to gain the seats it needs to govern.

 

 


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5 min read
Published 29 June 2016 3:00pm
Updated 29 June 2016 3:04pm
By Amanda Cavill


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