Those living in older, poorer and regional electorates are set to bear the brunt of extreme heat under unchecked climate change, according to new modelling from the Climate Council.
Its reveals which Australian cities could experience dangerous hotter temperates in the coming decades without any accelerated climate action. It also shows how recommended actions can help reduce days of extreme heat.
It has been released ahead of a federal election that must be held by 17 May. The major parties have vastly different visions for the energy system, with Labor pursuing a renewables-led transition while the .
How hot will parts of the country get?
By 2090, some parts of the country are projected to spend two-thirds of the year sweltering above 35C if inadequate action against climate change is taken.
Those most vulnerable to the heat are the poorest electorates, with many people unable to afford to cool or improve their homes against extreme heat.
Electorates with the highest proportion of older and younger people, who are the most susceptible to the dangers of heat waves, are also vulnerable should no action against climate change be taken.
Here's how your state measures up:
NSW
- Hottest electorate: Parkes. By 2090, Parkes residents are set to face 120 days per year over 35C if climate pollution isn't cut.
- Poorest electorate: Fowler. By 2090, Fowler residents will experience four times the number of hot days. It's Australia's fourth poorest electorate.
- Oldest electorate: Lyne. 30 per cent of the population in Lyne is over 65 and will face three times the number of hot days by 2050.
- Youngest electorate: Macarthur. 8 per cent of the electorate is aged under five and faces a twofold increase in hot days by 2090.
Victoria
- Hottest electorate: Mallee. It's set to have 58 days over 35C a year by 2090, up from 25 days.
- Oldest electorate: Flinders. 28 per cent of the electorate is over 65 and will face two times the number of days over 35C by 2050.
- Youngest electorate: Lalor. 9 per cent of the electorate is aged under five and faces 2.5 times the number of days over 35C by 2090.
Queensland
- Hottest electorate: Kennedy. It is projected to face 214 days over 35C per year by 2090, up from 110 days.
- Poorest electorate: Leichardt. It's the fifth poorest electorate in the nation and is set to experience almost four times the number of hot days.
- Oldest electorate: Hinkler. 29 per cent of the electorate is over 65 and residents face a sevenfold increase in hot days by 2050.
- Youngest electorate: Oxley. 7 per cent of the electorate is under five. They face an 11-fold increase in hot days by 2090.
South Australia
- Hottest electorate: Grey. They'll have 123 hot days by 2090, up from 69.
- Poorest electorate: Grey. The hottest electorate will also be the poorest.
- Oldest electorate: Mayo. 24 per cent are over 65 and are set to have their hot days doubled by 2050.
Western Australia
- Hottest electorate: Durack. They're predicted to spend 225 days of the year in sweltering heat by 2090.
- Poorest electorate: Durack. It's the sixth poorest electorate in Australia and also one of the hottest.
- Youngest electorate: Burt. 8 per cent of the population here is aged under five. By 2050, they'll be about 25 years old and face 35 days over 35C.
Tasmania
- Hottest electorate: Clark. While Tasmania is comparatively safe from extreme heating in the future, these residents near Hobart will still see the greatest amount of hot days by 2090, with two days over 35C. That's triple the average amount of hot days currently experienced. Climate Council says just one more day over 35C will have a detrimental impact on Tasmania's rainforests.
ACT
- Hottest electorate: Canberra. It's set to face 27 hot days each year by 2090, more than four times the current average of 6 days.
Northern Territory
- Poorest electorate: Lingiari. This is Australia's poorest electorate, with children set to face the majority of their lives in extreme heat by 2090, with an expected 235 days over 35C, up from the current 130 days.
The high emissions scenario is a pathway in which global emissions continue to rise throughout the 21st century. It corresponds with a likely global average temperature rise of around 4.4C by 2100.
Regional electorates in the already-hot northern states face particularly sharp increases in extreme heat days under the high emissions scenario.
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"The Climate Council's Heat Map shows Australians will suffer the consequences of climate change, by sweltering through a dramatic increase in oppressive heat unless we rapidly accelerate climate action," Climate Council CEO Amanda McKenzie said.
"Progress is being made to cut climate pollution, but we need to pick up the pace. As Australians go to the polls, we must understand that the next government’s climate policies will determine the type of future our kids experience.:
Professor David Karoly, a Climate councillor, added that the findings came as the , right on the heels of 2024 being the hottest year on record globally.
"These figures are also average increases, which means there will be some years in which many more extremely hot days are experienced than the projected average number over two decades," he said.
Coastal breezes should insulate wealthier seaside electorates from the worst of the heat but McKenzie said no area was immune to climate risks, especially suburbs prized for their proximity to bushland.
"The Los Angeles fires are a powerful reminder of how vulnerable cities can actually be to extreme weather," she told AAP.
Concerns for the 'Sweltering Generation'
Worryingly, the worst heat will hit communities that are least able to cope with it, including lower-income electorates and those with the highest proportion of Australians who are vulnerable to heat — people over 65 and children under 5.
The findings are especially concerning for Australian children, who are set to feel the brunt of the heat.
"Aussie kids under five right now are fast becoming the 'Sweltering Generation'," climate councillor Dr Kate Charlesworth said.
"What's deeply concerning is that some of our hottest areas are also neighbourhoods where families can least afford to install or run air conditioning."
Children in Northern Territory's Lingiari electorate, which the Climate Council say is Australia's poorest electorate, are set to spend the majority of their lives living in extreme heat. By 2090, it's projected residents will spend 235 days of the year sweltering in temperatures over 35C.
It's also worrying for older Australians, who tend to have other health complications, compounding vulnerability.
Charlesworth said the human body was typically "working pretty hard" to stay cool at 37C, noting that humidity, wind and other factors alter the experience of hot weather.
"Once you get about 39 degrees, 40 degrees or 41 degrees, you're getting into heat exhaustion territory and then heat stroke," she told AAP.
The elderly, pregnant women and babies and children were the most vulnerable but everyone was at risk on hot days, especially those working outside or exercising.
"We know that nationally, heatwaves are our most deadly unnatural disaster," Charlesworth said.
"In 2009, 432 people in Victoria and South Australia died in a heatwave, and it’s not just humans who suffer from hot weather: last month a marine heatwave killed 30,000 fish off the coast of Western Australia.
“To protect our families and the creatures and places we love from extreme heat, we need deep and rapid cuts to climate pollution now.”
With reporting from the Australian Associated Press.
