They weren't the scenes you'd expect in an Olympic host city less than one week out from the opening ceremony; dozens of demonstrators taking to the streets of Tokyo, brandishing signs and waving placards.
“Stop Tokyo Olympics” was scrawled across one banner. “Pandemic Olympiad” was the message on another.
“I want them to cancel the Tokyo Olympics immediately. The Olympic Games harms and burdens host countries,” said one protester, before he was bundled away by Japanese police.
Recent surveys suggest that up to 80 per cent of Japanese people want the Games either postponed a second time or scrapped altogether.
Activists march to the offices of the Olympic Games organising committee in Tokyo on 16 July. Source: AFP
“to protect our lives” has attracted more than 455,000 signatures.
The pandemic is threatening to dampen the Olympic spirit before the cauldron is even lit.
Over the weekend, organisers confirmed at least 10 COVID-19 cases among athletes and staff in the Olympic Village, forcing contacts into self-isolation and fueling fresh fears over the safety of the Games.
Organisers are now desperately scrambling to prevent a super-spreader event.
"We are well aware of the scepticism obviously a number of people have here in Japan,” International Olympic Committee (IOC) chief Thomas Bach said. “It goes without saying that all the concerned people were immediately isolated and this way they do not pose any risks to other participants or to the Japanese population.”
A ‘Tokyo Olympic strain’
Tokyo and several other Japanese cities are once again under a state of emergency as the country grapples with a rise in COVID-19 cases. Japan is currently seeing its highest number of daily infections since January.
For the first time in history, spectators have been banned from Olympic events, leaving stadiums, aquatic centres and velodromes empty and shrouded in silence.
Health experts have identified four risks for Tokyo 2020: Olympic visitors spreading COVID-19, increased mobility among the Japanese public, strain on medical resources, and the threat of new COVID variants entering the country.
No spectators will be allowed at the Games. Source: Getty Images
According to the chairman of the Japan Doctors Union, there is yet another grim possibility.
“A ‘Tokyo Olympic strain’ of the virus could emerge and be named in this way, which would be a huge tragedy and also be the target of criticism for 100 years,” Dr Naoto Ueyama told a press conference back in late May.
“Holding the Olympics in the current situation would be irresponsible to the athletes and would also pose a great threat to the people of Japan.”
‘The bigger picture’
But a simulation study from researchers at the University of Tokyo tells a different story, with modelling by economics professors Daisuke Fujii and Taisuke Nakata
The data suggests staging the Games would not have a significant impact on the city’s COVID-19 outbreak.
"The effects of those foreign visitors will be limited whereas the tiny increase in the movement of people who are already in Japan, that could make a huge difference, Mr Nakata told SBS News. “100,000 people sounds big, but Tokyo is a big city – we have 14 million people just in Tokyo and they are moving around every day."
Mr Nakata said a rise in Japanese people's activity during the Games should be of more concern.
"When people get less cautious, disease can spread very quickly at any moment, so it’s not really about having the Olympics or not,” he said.
"The state of emergency in Tokyo is not a strict lockdown that you see in other countries. Restaurants are open, bars are open until 8pm, schools are open, and several million people commute by public transportation.
Pedestrians wear face masks at the Shibuya Crossing in Tokyo. Source: LightRocket/Getty Images
"Olympic visitors represent less than one per cent of Tokyo’s population so you have to see the big picture.”
A 'pandemic detonator'
According to the IOC, about 84 per cent of Olympic delegations are fully vaccinated.
Athletes face unprecedented restrictions, with teams kept in tightly controlled bubbles.
Organisers have published which include guidelines on mask-wearing (mandatory except when competing, eating, drinking, and sleeping), daily COVID-19 testing, and social distancing - meaning no hugs, handshakes, or high-fives.
With Japan’s low vaccination rates (only 20 per cent of the population is fully immunised), the IOC's best efforts may not be enough to prevent a “pandemic detonator” as some critics have warned.
The Canadian team arrives at the Olympic Village wearing masks. Source: AFP/Getty Images
Every day for the duration of the Games, tens of thousands of local workers and volunteers will be moving in and out of the athletes’ village, with the potential to burst the Olympic bubble.
In contentious comments published in a June editorial in Kyodo News, Japanese Olympic Committee board member Kaori Yamaguchi lamented, “the Games have already lost their meaning and are being held just for the sake of them.”
“The ‘power of sports’ is of little comfort to people worried about the medical situation and their future lives.”
