TRANSCRIPT
It's clear that the second Donald Trump presidency is like nothing the world has seen before.
It's taken Australia by surprise - with the government unable to leverage the two country's close relationship to get an exemption from steel and aluminium tariffs.
The current state of Australia's closest ally has raised questions about the AUKUS deal signed in 2021.
The trilateral agreement between Australia, the United States, and the United Kingdom will see Australia acquire eight nuclear powered submarines at a cost of more than 300 billion dollars, and tightens an already close security relationship between the US and Australia.
As we live through what's been called the most challenging strategic circumstances since the Second World War with an unpredictable leader of the Free World, has Australia put all its defence eggs in one basket? And how did we get into this situation in the first place?
Australia's closest security partner is the United States, but it hasn't always been that way.
Chief Executive of the United States Studies Centre Professor Michael Green says the relationship began in the First World War.
"It really began in July 1918, on the Western Front, when the first 'dough boys', the first American troops, showed up, and they were told, you can't fight under the British. We still were, you know, suspicious of our former colonial masters. And so troops from Illinois went with General Monash and participated in the Battle of Hamel on July 4."
Labelled "the textbook victory" by the Australian War Memorial, the small scale attack on the Western Front was over in 93 minutes, with American and Australian troops serving together for the first time under, the command of Australian Lieutenant General John Monash.
Heading into the Second World War, Australia's closest allegiance remained within the Commonwealth, as International History Professor at Flinders University Matt Fitzpatrick explains.
"Australia had the opportunity prior to the Second World War to move to full kind of legal autonomy with a Statute of Westminster in 1931 but held off on doing that right up until 1942 so that when Menzies declares war on Germany in September of 1939 it's still very much part of that kind of imperial thinking that Australia is connected to the UK. And if the UK is at war, then to so is Australia."
After war was declared, most Australian troops were sent to Europe and North Africa to fight alongside British soldiers.
But soon, there was a more pressing threat.
Pearl Harbour in Hawaii was bombed by Japan in 1941.
The British withdrew from Malaya, and the remaining British stronghold of Singapore fell.
By 1942, Japan occupied most of South-East Asia and the Pacific.
With Britain focused on Europe, Australia looked to another partner.
Prime Minister John Curtin directly addressing the American people in a 1942 radio broadcast.
"But I give you this warning: Australia is the last bastion between the West Coast of America and the Japanese. If Australia goes, the Americas are wide open."
David Andrews from the National Security College at the Australian National University says the shift towards America began.
"We now turn to America and sort of look to them as our source of protection and as our principal defence partner, because they were the ones that were active in in the Pacific, primarily, after the attack on Pearl Harbor bringing them into the war."
Although it was still a while until the dependence completely switched.
"We didn't really make a hard pivot to America quite at that point. So we were still buying principally British equipment. We were still fighting in Commonwealth formations during the Cold War. So it's more around the Vietnam period, that I think you really see a more marked shift towards the United States and Australia's wider defence posture."
After the Second World War, Australia formalised its security partnership.
In 1951, the ANZUS treaty was signed - binding Australia, the United States, and New Zealand together, to consult on mutual threats, and act to meet common dangers.
Professor Green says it wasn't as strong as Australia had hoped for.
"When the treaty was first being negotiated in 1951 the Australian side wanted much more of an American commitment. They wanted American troops. They wanted a joint command like we have in NATO. And the US side said, no, we're not committing all that to Australia. You're not going to get attacked. We're going to focus on North Asia."
The ANZUS treaty says the parties would need to act to meet the common danger if there was an attack on one signatory.
But unlike the NATO treaty, it does not recognise an attack on one member as an attack on all, or oblige members to assist.
The New Zealand-US component of ANZUS was suspended in the 1980s.
As Australia strengthened its ties with the US, Professor Fitzpatrick says the British reassessed priorities.
"The British after World War Two are starting to understand the limits of their kind of capacity for power projection in the East."
The UK took a stance to not participate in conflicts East of the Suez, in Egypt.
And as the United States sought support in the Vietnam War, Australia and New Zealand showed up when Britain did not.
Mr Andrews says it was an important step for the relationship.
"There was a real sense that we wanted America involved, because it was in our interest that they'd be involved to help sort of defeat, or at least sort of neutralize, sort of pacify that threat as we understood it, but also, I think, to sort of keep that relationship front of mind."
The only time the ANZUS treaty has been formally activated was after the September 11 attacks.
Australia joined the United States in Afghanistan for two decades.
Australia is the only country that has fought alongside the US in every major modern conflict.
But when the East Timorese crisis erupted on Australia's doorstep, Professor Green says Australia wasn't happy with the US response.
"In 1999 the Australian side really wanted US boots on the ground and help with East Timor. I was actually working with the Pentagon at the time, and there was a very emotional meeting where Australian officers showed up, slouched hats and everything, you know, appealing to the Battle of Hamel and and evoking the Battle of the Coral Sea and mateship. And the US side said, sorry, we've got our hands full."
More than 1,400 civilians were killed in the crisis which escalated after the majority of East Timorese people voted for independence from Indonesia, with pro-Indonesian militias burning homes, and threatening and killing civilians.
Australia led the UN peacekeeping mission that followed, with the US offering intelligence and logistical assistance.
Mr Andrews says the support was greater than others would have received.
"The fact that we got that level of assistance, albeit at a slightly more sort of under the table sense from the US, I think, still indicates the strength of that relationship, but it's more the alliance on paper doesn't oblige them or us to do much."
These days, cooperation is at a high.
The forces serve together, study together, are posted together, train together, and share intelligence.
The US has military bases in Australia, including the infamous Pine Gap intelligence gathering facility.
And once again, conflict seems to be coming closer to home.
Professor Fitzpatrick says there have always been security concerns for parts of Australia.
"The north of Australia, the Indo Pacific region, has always kind of been seen as a zone of threat. So whether it was the French, the Germans, the Russians, the Chinese, the Japanese, or the kind of the domino theory of the Cold War. There was always a sense that the threat to Australia lay in the north, and that to mitigate that threat, Australia needed a strong power to kind of undergird its efforts in defence."
In 2021, the AUKUS agreement was signed - a new trilateral security partnership between Australia, the United States, and the United Kingdom that will "promote a free and open Indo-Pacific that is secure and stable."
It includes Australia acquiring eight nuclear powered submarines by 2050 at a cost of over 300 billion dollars.
An 800 million dollar down payment has already been made.
Professor Green says it's not an equal partnership.
"The US research and development budget, just R and D for the Pentagon is bigger than Australia's entire defence budget, so it's an asymmetrical relationship. And throughout history when you have that asymmetry, the smaller partner is always wondering if they're either going to get ripped off or entrapped in a war they don't want or abandoned. And then the bigger power is always wondering, are those guys carrying their weight."
There have been calls for the AUKUS deal to be ripped up - by former Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, as well as the Australian Greens, and rank and file Labor Party members.
But is there anyone else Australia can turn to?
Mr Andrews says there are some existing security relationships.
"We only have one formal alliance, which is ANZUS, and two allies being the US and New Zealand. We have other partnerships like the five power defence arrangements with Malaysia, Singapore, New Zealand and the UK, we also have a joint declaration on security cooperation with Japan. We have now signed up as security guarantors for Nauru and Tuvalu and also, we're now negotiating an upgrade of our bilateral security agreement with Papua New Guinea. Now those Pacific ones are on what we acting as the guarantor in the way that the US does to us, and the ones with Malaysia, Singapore and Japan are much more of a sort of partnership of equals."
There's a partnership with India as part of the Quad, and the Five Eyes intelligence sharing agreement with Canada, the US, UK, and New Zealand.
Australia and Korea have committed to expand cooperation, and there's an Australia-Indonesia Defence Cooperation Agreement in place.
Mr Andrews says President Trump's US-centric approach has been concerning.
"The way the whole world has been built around a model that has the US at its center for the best part of a century, for that to disappear, to some extent, in a fortnight is very dislocating. But I think the challenge is that there really isn't anyone that can replace United States."
But Professor Green says Australia is not alone.
"The debate in Australia publicly, it sometimes feels like all the eggs are in the American basket and all the bread and cheese is in the China basket, and there's only these two baskets and Australia has this tough choice between its big trading partner and its big ally. But that's not actually the Asia Australia lives in. There are other middle powers that are in the same situation as Australia that are extremely worried about China's growing coercion and ambitions, a little unnerved by Donald Trump."
And it can look to other middle powers to mitigate risks.
"Australia has really good friends. Japan's very pro Australia. The India Australia relationship had a lot of ups and downs, but it's now on a positive track. Korea really is opening up to Australia. The Philippines are on the front line. So yeah, Australia does have to put most of its eggs in the US basket. It still has the China basket, but it has other baskets. It can put an egg or two with Japan, an egg or two with Korea, and some eggs with India, not as an alternative to the US, but because everybody's also trying to figure this out. And there's a lot there to help manage China, but also manage the US."
