TRANSCRIPT:
After multiple interrruptions by climate activism group Rising Tide on the first full day of campaigning - security is being tightened for the remaining five weeks before election day.
Coalition spokesperson James Paterson has told the ABC Insiders program the protests are disturbing.
"I'm very concerned about this, David, because it comes in the context of the Federal Police saying that threats to parliamentarians are the highest they have ever been. And it means police have to divert significant row sources to protecting politicians at campaign events that could otherwise be out there solving crimes in the community."
But while the police aim to protect the politicians, it's the numbers that have the attention of many candidates and observers.
Paul Smith is the director of public data at market research firm YouGov.
He says they've just brought out their latest modelling.
"If an election was held today, Labor would be in the box seat with 75 seats out of 150 in the Parliament, just one short of a majority. This is a big change from only several weeks ago, when the Coalition was clearly favoured to win the election."
The YouGov findings are a stunning reversal of fortune for Labor, who was trailing in a similar poll released in February.
Paul Smith has told SBS the Coalition's workplace policies could explain the shift back towards the government.
"This change has been driven by the lack of support for Trump-like policies like stopping working from home and axeing over 40,000 public service workers, which are deeply unpopular in the working class seats that... Peter Dutton needs to win."
A closer look at the YouGov modelling shows at least some of the shape this result might take.
It indicates Labor could win one seat back from the Coalition - and two from the Greens.
That includes the seats of Brisbane and Griffith in Queensland, which Anthony Albanese has already made no secret of wanting back from the Greens after their surprise wins in 2022.
"I'm out to win new seats. I'm out to win here. I'm out to win Brisbane, Griffith and Ryan. I'm out to win Leichhardt. I'm out to win Bonner. You'll see us out and about during this campaign. I want a majority Labor government."
YouGov's modelling says the Opposition is likely to lose three seats, including the electorates belonging to opposition housing spokesman Michael Sukkar and the party's immigration spokesman Dan Tehan.
But Opposition Leader Peter Dutton appears unconcerned.
He hasn't raised the modelling results in a press conference during a visit to Sydney, in the McMahon electorate held by Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen on a healthy margin.
Instead, Mr Dutton is pressing his message about energy policy.
"People have spoken for years and years about an east coast gas reservation. We have put the policy on the table and it's about action now. It's about helping Australians with the cost of living pressures."
But while Mr Dutton has repeatedly said the Coalition has a plan to lower energy bills he has so far not released the modelling he says the party has conducted - which he was challenged about in this campaign exchange.
MAN: "Why won't you release your one?"
DUTTON: "We're very happy to release it. It'll be released in-
MAN: "You've just sledged the Prime Minister for not releasing 2035 modelling. Why won't you release yours?"
DUTTON: "You'll see it very shortly."
Treasurer Jim Chalmers has seized on this as evidence the Coalition cannot be trusted.
"They will legislate to increase taxes, at the same time as they won't come clean on their secret costs and their secret cuts. They will make all Australians worse off as a consequence."
Coincidentally, that is the same message the Coalition is sending on the government.
Peter Dutton accusing the government of causing misery for many communities, and letting down Indigenous Australians.
"In our positions that we've taken, I want practical support for Indigenous Australians. And I don't want to see the terrible situation continue in Alice Springs that the Prime Minister created when he removed the cashless debit card."
But for Labor, the main message of the day has not been about power, but groceries.
The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission's report after an inquiry into supermarket pricing did not conclude there had been instances of price-gouging - or in other words, excessively high charges.
Anthony Albanese says if he is re-elected he would legislate to make that practice illegal.
"This is a practice that is illegal in some countries such as the European Union, in the UK and others as well. This is another cost of living relief measure from my government to back up what we're doing... Australians deserve a fair go at the checkout and my government will hold the big supermarket chains to account."
Greens leader Adam Bandt has taken credit for the announcement, saying it's what the minor party has been calling for.
"Greens pressure works. The Prime Minister has gone shopping in the policy supermarket, and picked up the Greens plan... That's a great deal for Australian shoppers."
Back at YouGov, Paul Smith says they're expecting the next five weeks to be intense.
He says while Labor has taken the lead, only time will tell if their numbers hold up.
"What we know for certain is that very small shifts of voters... can make big differences to the key marginal seats. And for the government, they've got their nose in front but it's going to be a very competitive five weeks. And there's still everything to play for in this election."
