Each year, tens of thousands of ice skaters in the Netherlands strap on their skates and hope. Their wish is to compete in the Elfstedentocht, or 'Eleven Cities Tour' — a brutal 200km race on natural ice.
But a lack of suitable ice has meant the race has been held just three times in the past 50 years. And it may never happen again.
Henk Angenent, the winner of the most recent Elfstedentocht, in 1997, told The Feed the Dutch are coming to terms with that fact.
"It's very sad for the country and for a lot of ice skaters in [the] Netherlands. Skaters always hope to skate the eleven city tour," Angenent said.
And in Australia, sporting bodies have been told they need to prepare for the effects of a changing climate.
The 'Hell of '63'
The "Hell of '63" — a race marked by broken limbs and heavy snow — lives on in many Dutch memories. A 31-year old Reiner Paping became a national hero for out-skating 10,000 skaters over a brutal 11 hours in freezing -18C temperatures.
Some competitors behind him had given up or developed frostbite from the unforgiving conditions.
Paping was snow-blinded, barely able to see the path. It was so cold that racers stuffed newspapers under their clothes to keep them warm. Some were urged to stop halfway for their own safety.
Only 120 of the competitors finished the race.
A graph shows the increase in global surface temperature since 1880. The past 10 years are the warmest on record. Source: Supplied
The death of a tradition
The Elfstedentocht is deeply ingrained within Dutch culture as both a sporting event and festival.
The event is held in two categories with 30,000 athletes: 300 of which are competitive racers with a leisure tour following behind. It's meant to be held yearly, but relies on at least 15cm of ice on the track.
In the past 50 years it has been held in 1985, 1986 and 1997. Angenent said his "life changed" after his 1997 win.
"When I finished, I knew I made big history for myself but also for a lot of other people," Angenent said.
The 1986 edition of the Elfstedentocht: a 200km ice-skating race hosted in the Netherlands, which may never occur again. Source: Supplied / Nationaal Archief
Since its inception some 116 years back, there have only been 15 Elfstedentochts — and a 2019 study from the Dutch national weather service estimated that, under current warming trends, the chance of another race happening in any given year is now just 8 per cent. A century ago, the probability was at about 20 per cent.
Despite this, Angenent said 30,000 current members of the Royal Association of the Eleven Cities prepare for the race every year regardless, in the hope it will return.
The Elfstedentocht race goes through 11 cities in the Netherlands. Source: Supplied
Australian sports already being threatened
Australia isn't prepared for the potential impacts climate change will have on sport, according to Greg Dingle, a sport management lecturer from La Trobe University, Melbourne. He says climate change has caused an increase in local sporting competitions being delayed due to excessive heat or flooding along with higher repair costs to sporting infrastructure.
"Yes, short-term events are within our coping range … but we are not in the habit of integrating climate change into our day-to-day thinking or our longer-term thinking," Dingle said.
Australia's weather and climate has continued to change, with longer and more intense fire and flood events. Source: SBS
Snow depth across the past 70 years has decreased in Australia due to greenhouse gas emissions, according to CSIRO data from 2024 — and modelling suggests snow cover in coming decades is set to decline, with one German report from the University of Bayreuth stating the Australian Alps would suffer the worst of anywhere under climate change.
An uncertain future
Dingle says the effect climate change has on sport is impacting sporting clubs and communities.
"There's financial costs either in the form of lost revenue, money that's not earned, food and beverages that are not sold at the canteen because the club is closed due to extreme weather," he said.
"Anytime sport's disrupted, cancelled or delayed, there's an emotional cost on people … [and] if you've got extreme heat or extreme rain, there are health and safety issues."
Extreme floods and fires will increase in frequency and severity due to climate change, impacting more events into the future, research suggests. Source: Getty / Matt King
"The pre-season for soccer starts in warmer temperatures and the season is tending to end in warmer temperatures as well in spring," he said.
"Sport is just not set up for a problem like climate change."
CSIRO's 2024 State of the Climate report found that Australia has experienced an increase in extreme heat events, longer fire seasons, more intense heavy rainfall, and sea level rise.
In 2020, poor air quality from bushfire smoke forced some players to withdraw from the Australian Open Tennis tournament, while the cycling race Tour Down Under was shortened due to extreme temperatures.
Dingle says sports must "adapt" by considering changing the times matches are played, or changing the duration, as well as moving fields away from flood zones.
For the past few year, Australia's Olympic skiers have been training at a facility in Brisbane that allows for year-round practice. Freestyle skiers, for example, can practice their jumps into swimming pools, rather than the usual snow landings.
"Whilst climate change is going to continue to happen for foreseeable decades, if sport responds in a thoughtful way … then some of the impacts of the hazards may not be so bad," Dingle said.
Although it's been 28 years since the last Elfstedentocht, Angenent remains hopeful it will return. Source: Supplied
And it's not just isolated to sport: other major events that rely on weather, like music festivals, have been impacted by climate change. In 2022, the Splendour in Grass festival in northern NSW was affected by heavy flooding, leading to its first day being called off. Over 20 music festivals in Australia’s eastern states were postponed or cancelled due to weather that year.
An "alternative" Elstedentocht has been hosted in Austria since 1989 where conditions are more suitable.
As Dutch skaters hit whatever ice they can find each winter in the hopes of another Elfstedentocht, 2024 was recorded as the hottest year on record, surpassing the year before.
It's now been 28 years since the last Elfstedentocht, but Angenent is holding out hope.
"It's an 8 per cent chance, not zero. It's always possible."
