It’s now the early hours of the morning in the UK, polls closed for Britain’s referendum on staying in the EU last night.
The results are on a knife-edge, the BBC is reporting a very narrow results so far, with ‘Leave’ edging slightly ahead. Nearly half of the 385 polling booths have reported so far.
As of 12:55pm in Australia EST, Remain is on 48.7% and Leave is on 51.3% - with 55% of votes counted.
The pound initially rallied after early signs remain would win, but now it's fallen dramatically, along with the Australian stock market.
There are another 4 hours before we can expect a firm, official result, but while there were signs that the ‘Remain’ campaign could be cautiously confident of a win, the latest results show an unexpectedly strong Leave vote.
Here’s what we know.
The Pound jumped (but now it's crashing)
While there have been no public exit polls released since the vote, The Feed understands that hedge funds and currency traders have been conducting their own, private polls in order to make a profit off the result.
If Britain votes 'Remain' the pound will likely jump, if it votes 'Leave' it will probably fall - traders are driving themselves insane trying to make predictions. The graph above is updating live.
The line below shows the value of the British Pound against the US dollar over the past one month. You can see a dip a few days ago when the Leave campaign was peaking, but since then the pound has been rising, and especially sharply on the day of the vote.
As results have trickled in, however, it looks like traders are getting jumpy. Just after 11am AEST/2am UK time, the pound dropped dramatically as polling booths returned higher than expected Leave results.
The USD against the British Pound tracked for the past month. Source: Bloomberg.com
A vote-day poll showed Remain in the lead
Released late on Thursday, the day of the referendum, a poll by of 5,000 people showed the Remain side ahead: 52% to 48%.
The most recent poll from Ipsos Mori also showed the Remain campaign ahead, with 54% supporting Remain and 46% supporting Leave.
Tracking polls released by YouGov show the Remain campaign in the lead. Source: YouGov
Turnout was high
One of the major tipping points for the result of the vote was always going to be turnout. Without mandatory voting, whether supporter for either Leave of Remain actually showed up at the polls was always one of the greatest uncertainties.
Turnout, however, has been high. Early estimates are putting it at around 70% despite poor weather and flooding in some areas.
This is a good sign for the Remain campaign. It would appear that young voters who were more likely to lean pro-EU have come out to make their voices heard. Conventional wisdom is that undecided voters were more likely to just stick with the status quo, but for Remain campaign there was a risk they might just stay home. It looks like they showed up.
Turnout has been high compared to recent votes, a positive sign for Remain campaigners. Source: SBS News
A ‘Leave’ campaigner came close to conceding
Nigel Farage, leader of the right-wing, anti-EU UK Independence Party, told media he had a sense that Remain had won. It’s surprised many, given how strongly he and his party have campaigned for a Leave vote.
Nigel Farage has said he thinks #Remain have won the #EUref with 52 per cent of the vote https://t.co/AMLRF4Wg9Ehttps://t.co/CLYi1QGlxG — The Telegraph (@Telegraph) June 23, 2016
