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Since 2007, the first year of the succession of Ballarat-based events, this event and course has seen winners turn into professional riders at an astonishing rate. Wesley Sulzberger, Simon Clarke, Jack Bobridge, Michael Hepburn, Ben Dyball, Rohan Dennis, Jordan Kerby, Caleb Ewan, Miles Scotson, Chris Hamilton, Cyrus Monk, Jarrad Drizners and Blake Quick have all raced at least at Pro Tour level, the only ones on the list not to secure pro deals were Nicholas White, Thomas Benton, Sam Jenner and last year’s winner, Alastair MacKellar, who looks on his way to position in the WorldTour.
It's regularly one of the most exciting races, with enough in the way of team tactics to keep you engaged there, and enough difficulty in the course for the special athletes to give an idea of just how good they are.
There is a wealth of talent in the event this year, in particular plenty of depth, without maybe the couple of standouts that we’ve seen in past years.
The Course
The 139.2km course takes in 12 Laps of the Mt Buninyong circuit, a course that has mostly produced wins for solo riders and small groups of two and three that form over the top of Mt Buninyong.
You have to be able to climb really well, and often the winners are already some of the best riders on the domestic scene, or have already attracted overseas attention and are riding with international teams.
The Mt Buninyong course is well-known within the Australian cycling community, a three-kilometre climb that has ramps of up to 10 per cent, but is mostly difficult due to the repeated efforts round and round the course over the race.
The Road Race route for the Australian National Championships 2021 Credit: AusCycling
Tactics
There are three big teams present in the race, Team Bridgelane with 10 riders, ARA Skip Capital with 9 riders and Van D’Am Racing p/b Butterfields with 8 riders. The rest of the teams come with lower numbers and won’t be able to burn riders to chase back an early breakaway that they don’t like or use riders to force clear a move where they have the advantage.
Bridgelane and ARA Skip Capital are the stronger of the squads, it would be a shock to see them not in the initial breakaway, or it be a nothing breakaway while both squads bide their time for later.
Just like the elite races, the breakaway can go all the way to the line, sometimes it’s the right composition for the major teams to let them fight it out, and other times one rider will be stronger than expected from the early move and stay clear if there’s much in the way of foxing in the chase from behind.
Contenders
It’s hard to go past the top teams again when it comes to the top contenders due to the advantage that they’ll have over the individual entries and the quality of the riders present. Team Bridgelane have long been the top team domestically in Australia over the better part of the last two decades and they’ve gone a lot younger over the past few years, with a new intake of riders this year again driving their average age down.
Jackson Medway leads the names after a very impressive time trial, his power numbers have been touted by Henk Vogels on the Wheelhouse Cycling Podcast as similar to Filippo Ganna. A statement like that is hard to overlook, but Medway doesn’t yet have a signature result in a road race, so he can’t be the only protected rider for the team.
James Panizza was fourth last year, climbs well, has a sprint, and profiles as very much the type of rider that could win over this course. Matthew Greenwood had a 2023 season of impressive improvement, moving from an also-ran to a consistent top performer on the National Road Series. Zac Marriage is a classy rider who has shown he can win big races, no one wins Grafton to Inverell by accident and he’s been touted for a few years as a star for the future. Bailey McDonald and Dalton Stretton are riders that could win if put in the right position tactically, I’m not sure that they’ll be the leaders who’ll attack in the final lap, but rather an opportunistic attack.
ARA Skip Capital comes with a similarly stacked squad of potential winners. My pick from the squad is Declan Trezise, a rider who always seems to be in the thick of the action on this course and has been gradually improving throughout his young career to the point that he is consistently at the front of races and fighting for the win. Blake Agnoletto is fresh off his Under 23 criterium win, finishing off a sprint from a small group after a very attacking race. He might not be perfectly suited to this race, but he will be hard to beat if a group of 10 or so riders comes to the finish.
The slight-frame of Will Eaves is more at home on the climbs, and his results echo at races like that fact, but he put in a much better-than-expected seventh in the time trial and this course will suit a lot more than that one. He has some super impressive Asian results as well, and he’s going to be hard for others to follow on Mt Buninyong. As extra chess pieces, I would expect Tyler Tomkinson and last year’s Under 19 nationals road race winner Josh Cranage to be riders who are looking for breakaways to threaten Bridgelane with some dangerous riders up the road.
Now to the individuals and smaller teams. Alex Bogna (Alpecin-Deceuninck Development Team) was the rider’s name on everyone’s lips heading into the Under-23 men’s event last year and he showed that faith wasn’t misplaced with a strong ride from the breakaway for a third-placed finish, running into a top-tier ride from Alastair Mackellar. I’m not sure that I’d back Bogna in for the win here as I think it’s going to need to be either a transcendent ride or a really smart tactical one from Bogna where things outside his control fall into place for the victory.
Hamish McKenzie is a 2nd year Under 23 now after his stellar 2nd in the home worlds in Wollongong brought him to the world’s attention. He’s still very much a time-trial specialist, and it will be a case of adapting his massive potential onto the road in the longer races. He cut his teeth on a tough calendar of racing last year, he’ll be better for that experience and his second-place finish in the time trial shows he is in good shape.
Third in that time trial was Oscar Chamberlain, the Under 19 world champion in the time trial in his first year at Under 23 level. Chamberlain said in a recent interview that he was happy to take things slowly as he continues to gain experience. For an 18-year-old, he is immensely experienced, coming from a cycling family and spending two seasons over in Europe already picking up top results at the junior level. The course isn’t perfect for the taller frame of Chamberlain and he lacks a team to bring things back together if he can muscle his way over the climb within sight of the nippier climbers.
John Carter (X-Speed Australia) is a growing star of the track, this will be a good test if he can also measure up to the best on the road. The buzz out of Western Australia is good, if you trust the Boxing Day Papas ride form, then Carter will bump a few spots up the list.
Matt Fox, for a rider that I had never heard of until an English friend mentioned them while talking about their National Road Series, certainly wins a lot. He’s cut his teeth on kermesse and hard racing in Europe and also polished off his fair share of wins and good results. An attacking performance for second on the day during the Under 23 criterium was a stronger ride than it was a canny one, I’m looking forward to watching him race as a solo rider.
Angus Miller, 21, is my pick of the Van D’am team for a result here, he’s only really come on the scene recently, and his continued progression of showings has been impressive, but a top-5 is probably the best that could be hoped for.
When to watch the Under-23 Men's Road Race on SBS On Demand
Saturday, January 6
Australian Road National Championships – U23 Men’s Road Race
1430-1700 AEDT
Live streaming on SBS On Demand
