Perth-born Jai Hindley currently sits in second overall, the slimmest of margins off the coveted pink jersey. He’s finished runner-up before at the Giro d’Italia, in 2020 when he went into the final stage time trial locked on time with eventual winner Tao Geoghegan Hart (INEOS Grenadiers).
The Australian is now just three seconds off the overall lead of rival Richard Carapaz (INEOS Grenadiers) and the margin is almost as razor-thin as back in 2020. Then, it was a pair of young upstarts at the top of the standings.
This time around, he has to deal with the Olympic champion who is also a Giro d’Italia winner and has finished on the podium at both the Tour de France and the Vuelta a España in Carapaz. There’s also João Almeida (UAE Team Emirates), who has been dropped a number of times in the race, but continues to hang doggedly in there. Mikel Landa (Bahrain Victorious) is too good a climber to discount as well and just over a minute down.
Hindley is more experienced as well, and while he’s always been unflappable on and off the bike, there’s been a more concerted effort from him and his BORA-hansgrohe team to aim for the top step of the podium at the finish in Verona. Here’s a look at the key obstacles for Hindley to overcome to win Australia’s first Giro d’Italia.
Final time trial
Going a bit out of order here, but the final 17.3km TT looms large as the contenders consider what they have to do to put themselves in a winning position.
Hindley is the weakest of the top three against the clock on a flat course, but this isn’t going to be a traditional time-trial specialist’s route in Verona to conclude the race. The route of the time trial is a carbon copy of the final stage of 2019, when Carapaz won the Giro. The route takes in an intermediate climb on the Via Torricelle (4.5 kilometres at 4.6%) before a descent along wide roads leads to the finish in a Roman amphitheatre.
Stage 21 profile Giro d'Italia 2022
This time they will be racing full-gas. The Stage 2 time trial showed that there is a gap in abilities, Almeida was the best at 18 seconds off stage winner Simon Yates, while Carapaz was 28 seconds in arrears, with Hindley at 34 seconds.
That corresponds with their reputations in the race of truth, Almeida’s results sheet is littered with top-5 finishes in races against the clock, Carapaz is always solid, while Hindley is average and Landa is poor. The climb is a bit of an equalising factor, the nuances of aerodynamics reduced and the importance of power to weight coming to the fore, but there are still enough kilometres of flat for time-trialling ability to tell.
I think it would be possible for Almeida to take up to three seconds a kilometre on Hindley, take out the climb and that’s 39 seconds. Carapaz can probably expect about half of that. Hindley currently sits three seconds behind Carapaz, so there’s some way to go before the West Australian can feel comfortable heading into Verona.
Almeida will be a danger man if he can claw back some time over the final stages, though after losing out on Stage 17 he is less of a threat.
The climbing stages
Stage 19 contains the devilish Slovenian climb of the Kolovrat (10.4km at 8.9%) and it would be a surprise if there wasn’t some action from the teams of Bahrain Victorious or BORA-hansgrohe in the manner of early pressure that they’ve heaped on so far this race.
The final climb to the finish in Santuario di Castelmonte comes nearly 40 kilometres after the summit of the Kolovrat, and it’s an easier climb, with varying gradients topping out near the top of the climb at 7.9%. It would be against the pattern of racing if major splits occurred there if there hasn’t been a lot of action on the Kolovrat, and a lot of riders will be keeping themselves as fresh as possible for the final day in the mountains.
Altitude comes into the race in a way not seen yet in the 2022 Giro, as the Cima Coppi (the highest point above sea level in the Giro) is surmounted at the Passo Pordoi. The average gradient of 6.8% over 11.8 kilometres won’t make riders swoon, but the lack of oxygen might at 2,239 metres.
The Pordoi is just the appetiser for the Fedaia Pass – also known as the Marmolada – which totals 14 kilometres and averages 7.6%. The first half of the climb belies the difficulty of the finish, with the final 5.4 kilometres averaging over 11% to the finish line atop the pass as the riders again breach the 2,000 metre mark above sea level.
This will be decisive point for anyone hoping to make up time ahead of the time trial. The toughest stretch of climbing the riders will face at this year’s Giro comes right at the end when the peloton is the most fatigued.
The art of attacking
This Giro d'Italia has been a good one for spectators, with plenty of attacks from the riders contending for the overall win. Most notable has been Carapaz, who has aimed to fight fire with fire.
When isolated on Stage 14 by BORA-hansgrohe, rather than waiting for the inevitable move from them, Carapaz anticipated with an attack and forced others onto the back foot. He’s also not been shy in attacking on the final climbs.
Hindley himself has taken up the burden of forcing the pace, but we’re yet to see him place himself in a position where he’s looked to take significant time, most of his personal attacks have been late in the stage rather than early.
Perhaps that was with an eye on this final week, and that seems to be good strategy with still so much to be decided. That dynamic may need to change with still some work needing to be done to move into the pink jersey and then also maintain it all the way through to Verona.
Landa is a dangerous climber with an impressive palmares across Grand Tours in his career, he's yet to hit the lofty heights of an overall win, but he's a classy climber at his best.
Almeida is just grinding out this Giro, the Portuguese star had built a reputation on attacking with almost a classics-rider’s flair then finishing things off well in a sprint, but for this race he’s drawing comparisons with 90's star Miguel Indurain for his consistent pace up the climbs. It has seen him dropped with accelerations before fighting his way back to the front time and time again, and he’s holding steady.
Even behind Almeida, dangerous riders like Pello Bilbao (Bahrain Victorious), Vincenzo Nibali (Astana-Qazaqstan), Domenico Pozzovivo (Intermarché - Wanty - Gobert Matériaux) and Emanuel Buchmann (BORA-hansgrohe) lurk. None is an exceptional time triallist, so it would take a move in the order of magnitude of Chris Froome’s 2018 heroics at the Giro d’Italia to overturn the required deficit, but it’s not impossible.
It’s shaping up to be a fascinating battle for the pink jersey, one that will live long in the memory, particularly for Australians if the 26-year-old from Perth can go one better than 2020.
Watch all the action from the Giro d'Italia on SBS with full stages nightly on SBS On Demand!
The Giro d'Italia continues tonight with Stage 17 heading to Laverone over a course of 168 kilometres that includes the late climb of the Monte Rovere, eight kilometres at 9.6 per cent. Watch via SBS On Demand from 8:20pm (AEST), with SBS coverage starting from 11:00pm (AEST). WA viewers can watch from 9:00pm (AWST) on SBS VICELAND.
