The Australian Energy Market Operator is warning new power generation, new transmission lines, and new energy storage is needed to avoid blackouts, as ageing coal power plants shut down.
The Operator's report says the reliability standard will be breached by mainland states in the national electricity market from 2027 onwards. That's because 13 per cent of the market's capacity - in the form of at least five coal-fired power stations - is expected to retire by then.
The Australian Energy Market Operator's Chief Executive is Daniel Westerman. He's told A-B-C Radio there's not yet enough alternative power sources locked in to avoid the conclusion the report makes.
"What we see towards the back end of the decade is increasing reliability gaps, and those gaps hit every mainland state in the national electricity market. The analysis that AEMO undertakes is only on what's called committed projects. They really have to be there and with a firm expectation they will be delivered."
Stephanie Bashir is the principal of Nexa Advisory. She was previously Senior Director of Public Policy at large energy firm AGL. She says the report delivers a blunt message.
"What this means is that we're going to need a lot more renewable generation and transmission built on a massive scale over the next five to ten years to keep the lights on.''
The federal government is moving to dampen down concerns from the report.
Energy Minister Chris Bowen says work is being down to ensure blackouts are not a future inevitability.
