Households would get a modest 7 per cent fall in their gas bills and 3 per cent cut to their electricity bills under the Coalition's plan to pump the market with gas to drive down energy costs.
The Coalition released the promised modelling into its national gas plan on Tuesday night, which would make companies keep gas in the Australian market.
Industrial customers are being promised a 15 per cent reduction in retail gas bills, with a forecast 8 per cent decrease in wholesale electricity prices.
Opposition leader Peter Dutton revealed his gas reservation policy in his budget reply speech last month, and has repeatedly attacked Prime Minister Anthony Albanese for failing to achieve the promise that Labor would cut power bills by $275.
"Our policy will be a game changer because we can then see the cost and therefore price of electricity, construction, food prices and many other goods start to come down," Dutton said.
"Gas is critical to our nation's energy future.
"By making the gas companies put more of our Aussie gas into our market instead of exporting it, we will get the price of gas down by 15 per cent."
Danny Price, managing director of economics consultancy Frontier Economics, who prepared the modelling, said the plan would decouple the domestic price from expensive international rates.
The forecast was published during .

The Opposition promised a 15 per cent reduction in retail gas bills. Source: AAP / Jason Edwards
Energy bills, healthcare and broader cost of living pressures were among the most pressing issues for the voters.
Independent senator Jacqui Lambie and her South Australian upper house candidate and former senator Rex Patrick have pledged if they are returned to parliament, they will set up a "wide-ranging" parliamentary inquiry into Australia's relationship with the United States.
This would include the ANZUS Treaty and the AUKUS partnership with the US and United Kingdom, under which Australia has been promised nuclear-powered submarines.
"We need to ask the hard questions about how to manage relations with a great power that's unpredictable, aggressively protectionist in trade policy, and self-interested in security relationships," Lambie said.
"The US is putting America first — it's time we put Australia first!"