KEY POINTS:
- Finland has joined NATO as Sweden continues to face pushback from Türkiye.
- Finland and Ukraine both border Russia, but their NATO membership bids were met with different reactions.
- Finland and Sweden's decision to join NATO abandons decades of military non-alignment.
They're both countries on Russia's doorstep, but their hopes to join the 30-member strong NATO military alliance were met with very different responses from President Vladimir Putin.
On Tuesday (local time), Finland became the 31st NATO member and one that borders Russia, joining Norway, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.
Sweden also hopes to join but is currently experiencing pushback from Türkiye.
The decision to approve Finland is one that Professor Stephan Fruehling, from the Australian National University's Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, labelled a "significant development".
"It changes the strategic landscape in Northern Europe very significantly," he said. "NATO always had a border in Russia in Norway [a member since the alliance's inception in 1949]... but now, that border is much longer and it means NATO gains a lot more strategic depth to defend both new and old members," Professor Fruehling said.
Ukraine, another country on Russia's doorstep, much to Russia's anger. Indeed, Mr Putin signalled this desire was among the reasons he directed his forces to invade last year.
But despite both countries bordering Russia, Russia's response to Finland's NATO membership bid was relatively muted. So why was that the case?
Firefighters put out a fire after a Russian missile hit a residential multi-story building in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine. Source: AAP, SIPA USA / SOPA Images
Why did Finland and Sweden want to join NATO?
Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February last year pushed Finland and its neighbour Sweden , abandoning decades of military non-alignment.
The conflict sparked a shift in the relationship between European nations, including Finland and Sweden, and Russia, according to Jessica Genauer, a senior lecturer in international relations at Flinders University.
"Over the past few decades we've seen many countries in the European region trying to pursue a policy of engagement with Russia, even if that was cautious engagement," Dr Genauer said.
She said these countries, the most prominent example being Germany, had hoped this engagement would help maintain security and stability on the continent, but the invasion had turned that stance on its head.
Germany, for example, was a major importer of Russian fossil fuels. Before the invasion, it imported about half of its gas and more than a third of its oil from Russia.
Finland's president, Sauli Niinisto, signed legislation on the country's accession to NATO on 23 March after parliament passed the bill earlier that month. Source: AAP, EPA / Mauri Ratilainen
Mr Linder described it as an "enormous change in German policies".
"We have understood that we have to foster our competitiveness after the era of Chancellor [Angela] Merkel. That era was focused on, well, strengths of the past, and now we are developing strengths of the future," Mr Linder said at the time.
In the case of Finland, neutrality began after the country repelled an invasion attempt by the Soviet Union during World War Two and the Nordic nation opted to try to maintain friendly relations with neighbouring Russia.
Dr Genauer believes many European nations now instead want to "contain" Russia and pursue policies that enhance their own security.
"They've really shifted from trying to engage Russia to trying to contain Russia, and really seeing Russia as a threat that they need to manage and minimise as much as possible," she said.
Vladimir Putin's differing views on Ukraine, Finland's NATO hopes
Ukraine has some relationship with NATO through the military alliance's Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council — a consultative and dialogue body on which Russia, currently suspended, usually sits.
But it is not a NATO member. If it was, an attack on its soil would be considered an attack on other participating countries.
At a summit in Brussels in 2021, NATO leaders said Ukraine would eventually become a member of the military alliance, reiterating a 2008 decision.
NATO's eastward expansion has irked Russia. In 2021, it submitted draft security pacts to the United States and its allies that would deny NATO membership to Ukraine and other ex-Soviet countries.
In his speech announcing that Russia's forces would invade Ukraine, Mr Putin said: "Further expansion of the NATO infrastructure and the beginning of military development in Ukraine's territories are unacceptable for us."
And in October 2022, deputy secretary of Russia's security council, Alexander Venediktov, was quoted by Russia's TASS news agency as saying Ukraine joining NATO "would mean a guaranteed escalation to a World War Three".
But Mr Putin said in May last year that .
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg pledged to work hard to get Sweden into NATO as soon as possibl Source: AAP
He said "counter-measurers" would be taken — a comment that came a day after Russia said it would strengthen its military capacity in its western and northwestern regions in response.
Meanwhile, Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said Finland's membership raised the prospect of the conflict in Ukraine escalating further, according to a transcript published by his ministry, but did not specifically mention the risk of widespread conflict.
"I think the reason the Russians are reasonably blasé about it demonstrates that this argument that Russia's antagonism towards the West and Ukraine, in particular, is being driven by NATO expansion has always been a fairly phony argument advanced by the Russians," Professor Fruehling said.
"This was always about Ukraine and territorial control of Ukraine, and I think the argument that it was about NATO expansion was only relevant insofar as Ukraine's NATO membership would have to do what they're currently doing to the Ukrainians."
Dr Genauer believes the relatively muted response from Russia is due to the invasion having weakened its forces, meaning it has "no capacity to escalate with NATO member countries".
She said another reason could be that Mr Putin's regime believes it has a "historical entitlement to control or influence" ex-Soviet countries like Ukraine.
When will Sweden join NATO?
Türkiye continues to hold up Sweden's application. It says Stockholm harbours members of what Ankara considers terrorist groups - a charge Sweden denies - and has demanded their extradition as a step toward ratifying Swedish membership.
Hungary is also holding up Sweden's admission, citing grievances over criticism of Prime Minister Viktor Orban's policies. But NATO diplomats say they expect Budapest will approve Sweden's bid if it sees Turkey moving to do so.
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg pledged to work hard to get Sweden into NATO as soon as possible. He also stressed that NATO and Swedish officials were already working to bring Sweden closer to the alliance even as they wait for membership to be finalised.
- With AAP.
