TRANSCRIPT
It hasn’t been the centre of fighting since the early stages of the war, but the White House hopes the new Black Sea deal could be a small step towards a broader peace.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy is indicating he sees it, and an agreement to stop targeting energy infrastructure, as tests of Vladimir Putin’s intentions.
"How Russia behaves in the coming days will show a lot, if not everything. If there are air alarms again, if there is military activity in the Black Sea again, if there are Russian manipulations and threats again, then new measures will have to be taken - specifically against Moscow."
On the Black Sea… Ukraine and Russia have agreed to…
… “ensure safe navigation”…
… “end the use of force”…
… and “prevent the use of commercial vessels for military use.”
Although Kyiv says it would regard any Russian military vessels outside the eastern part of the sea as a ‘threat’… and would respond.
There had been a deal to allow Ukraine to export its grain in the first year of the war, but Moscow withdrew in 2023, blaming Kyiv.
This time, the Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov is demanding the US order President Zelenskyy to ‘respect’ the terms.
“Given the track record of Ukraine itself, and, of course, also the Black Sea initiative history in general, we would like there to be no ambiguities this time."
Both countries have also agreed to suspend strikes on key energy facilities, including oil refineries, gas pipelines and power plants…
Kyiv has become increasingly adept at hitting Russian oil production sites with drones in recent months.
Moscow’s negotiators looked pleased with the deal they signed in Saudi Arabia… and it’s no wonder:
The US has committed to help restore Russia’s agricultural and fertiliser exports, and while Kyiv believes the agreement has already come into effect, the Kremlin says it won’t start until sanctions are lifted against Russia’s main export bank - and that would require agreement from European countries.
Donald Trump says he’ll look into the Russian request.
“We're in deep discussions with Russia and Ukraine. And I would say it's going well but it's a situation we should never have had to even think about."
The deal is well short of the comprehensive ceasefire the US President had wanted…
And it could easily fall apart… those living in the Ukrainian port city of Odessa are sceptical.
“Russians never keep their words. All these deals will not be in Ukraine’s favour.”
With President Zelenskyy already accusing the Kremlin of lying about the terms of the agreements, it’s difficult to see this is as the base for a wider-ranging peace.
