As Britain comes to terms with its referendum results, the country’s departure from the European Union is proving to be far more complicated and messy than many expected.
Scotland is threatening to secede, millions of immigrants and emigrants are worried about their future, and businesses are already drawing up plans to move their headquarters onto the European mainland.
With reports that many are experiencing ‘Bregret’ or ‘Bregrexit’, here are four ways the United Kingdom could crab-walk its way out of the narrow ‘vote leave’ win.
1 - A government divided, a referendum repeated
The morning after the Leave vote, Prime Minister David Cameron resigned. At the same time, he also backtracked on a pledge to officially notify the EU that the UK wanted to leave. Once a government gives that notification, a 2-year deadline timer starts. Prime Minister Cameron kicked it to the next Prime Minister to push the button.
While the pro-Brexit forces were united in their passion to leave Europe, there was no clear plan for exactly how a withdrawal would take place, or what the terms of separation would be. Complicating matters further, a majority of MPs across parties were supporters of the Remain campaign.
The British government may spend months or years negotiating the Brexit both internally and with the EU. Over that time, the political landscape could shift considerable, especially if the economic impacts of the uncertainty begin to bite as businesses move offshore and investment shifts to mainland Europe.
Former Prime Minister Tony Blair says a second referendum should not be ruled out, noting that circumstances may have changed by the time negotiations are complete.
2 - A Labour Win
It’s possible that the Labour Party, as strong Remain supporters, could position the next election as a ‘referendum on the referendum’. If they went in to an election with a strong ‘stay’ campaign, they could claim a win as a mandate which trumps the narrow results.
But it’s a massive political risk for a party already in disarray. The resignation of the Prime Minister has prompted speculation about an early election, and it appears the shadow ministry has little confidence that their leader could win an election if one is called in the coming months.
11 members of Labour’s shadow cabinet have resigned since the EU Referendum in an apparent attempt to force a leadership spill, but Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn is saying he’s determined to stay.
Jeremy Corbyn thanks police, but does not speak to reporters as he leaves his home on Sunday lunchtime https://t.co/e8dtAb2uaD — BBC Politics (@BBCPolitics) June 26, 2016
3 - Scottish Usurpers
Scotland has made its displeasure at the referendum results clear. Along with citizens in London and Northern Ireland (narrowly) the majority of Scottish voters sided with the Remain campaign.
For Scotland – which voted Remain by 62% – the aftertaste is particularly sour. The country voted to remain a part of the UK in 2014 at a time when anti-Independence campaigners were touting EU membership as a key reason to stay within the Kingdom.
First Minister of Scotland, Nicola Sturgeon, has floated two responses. The first is the “highly likely” option of a second referendum on independence from the UK, and the second is using the Scottish Parliament to block the UK’s EU withdrawal.
Using the Scottish parliament to block the withdrawal is something which would likely be legally tested, but Minister Sturgeon seems resolute. The bad blood it would create with the rest of England is, “perhaps it's similar to the fury of many people in Scotland right now as we face the prospect of being taken out of the European Union against our will,” she said.
Scotland's First Minister @NicolaSturgeon on potentially blocking British exit from EU https://t.co/K6pbNn362q https://t.co/IquNADYPlX — BBC Breaking News (@BBCBreaking) June 26, 2016
4 - B.R.I.N.O.
A Brexit In Name Only would be the least disruptive form of Brexit, but it may end up disappointing many of the Leave voters (not to mention leaving everyone else wondering what the point of the whole referendum was).
Countries like Norway and Switzerland are not members of the European Union, but they do have a number of association agreements with the bloc that grant them access to the common market.
It’s foreseeable that the United Kingdom may be able to negotiate a similar agreement with the EU, but it’s likely that if Britain wants to maintain access to the EU’s markets, it will also have to accept other conditions – the exact same conditions Brexiteers complained about.
In exchange for access to the EU, Norway agrees to be bound by a significant number of EU laws, accepts the free movement of migrants and workers and contributes millions of euros to the EU’s budget. The country is granted participation rights in many EU sub-organisations, but no voting rights.
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